Opinion & Analysis
The 23 Players Who Can Win The Masters
Last year, I created a filter to help predict the golfers that were most likely to win the Masters. I got the list down to 23 players. In the end, eight of the top-10 finishers were on that list of 23 players that included the eventual winner Adam Scott and runner-up Angel Cabrera.
Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes versus the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in score exists. Going into last year, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. However, after last year, the data is trending differently and now the critical holes are Nos. 7, 12, 13 and 18. With the Eisenhower Tree and some other trees down after the winter storms this year, I would suspect that No. 17 will be easier and it may be a long time before the 17th is a critical hole at the Masters again. Either way, I would watch out for this new set of critical holes as the tournament goes along.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive and the amateurs.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (amateur)
- Oliver Goss (amateur)
- Chang-Woo Lee (amateur)
- Michael McCoy (amateur)
- Jordan Niebrugge (amateur)
- Garrick Porteous (amateur)
- Fred Couples (past champion)
- Ben Crenshaw (past champion)
- Bernhard Langer (past champion)
- Sandy Lyle (past champion)
- Mark O’Meara (past champion)
- Larry Mize (past champion)
- Jose Maria Olazabal (past champion)
- Craig Stadler (past champion)
- Tom Watson (past champion)
- Mike Weir (past champion)
- Ian Woosnam (past champion)
I also eliminated any first time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
- Jonas Blixt
- Steven Bowditch
- Roberto Castro
- Brendon de Jonge
- Graham DeLaet
- Victor Dubuisson
- Harris English
- Derek Ernst
- Matt Every
- Steven Gallacher
- Billy Horschel
- Matt Jones
- Chris Kirk
- Joost Luiten
- Patrick Reed
- Jordan Spieth
- Kevin Stadler
- Jimmy Walker
I will say that this group of 1st time invitees is one of the strongest in recent memory with golfers like Bowditch, DeLaet, English, Ernst, Every, Horschel, Jones, Kirk, Reed, Spieth, Stadler and Walker all appearing to be good fits for Augusta National. So, if there is ever a year where somebody may break the first time invitee curse, this is it.
I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Those players include:
- Darren Clarke
- Peter Hanson
- Trevor Immelman
- Dustin Johnson
- Martin Kaymer
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Ian Poulter
- Scott Stallings
- Kevin Streelman
I also eliminated John Senden, as he has only made the cut once in three tries Augusta and the odds of winning go way down for golfers that have struggled to make the cut at the course.
I also filtered out the European and Asian players on which I do not have substantial data:
- Francesco Molinari
- Thongchai Jaidee
- Thomas Bjorn
- Jamie Donaldson
- Thorbjorn Olesen
Over the past 10 years, Augusta National has heavily favored longer hitters that hit the ball high and well from what I call ‘”The Danger Zone.” The Danger Zone is all approach shots from 175-to-225 yards, and it is biggest key to Augusta National, because without quality Danger Zone play at the Masters the golfer will not be successful.
While Augusta National is known for its greens, the make percentage on putts is fairly high from inside 15 feet; likely due to the excellent putting surfaces. The real difficulty on the greens at Augusta is from longer than 20 feet away. Between the undulations and the super-fast green speed, it becomes a task to not three-putt the long ones at Augusta. The big reason why long hitters do so well at Augusta now is that the course plays like a par 68 for them, and that allows them to get away with putting worse. So, if a player is not long, they had better bring good putting and Danger Zone play with them.
Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:
- Tim Clark
- Jim Furyk
- Zach Johnson
- David Lynn
- KJ Choi
While Zach Johnson is a previous champion, he also won in a year where there were record low temperatures. This helped Johnson because the longer hitters could not play the par-5’s like a par-4 and that shifted the advantage toward him and his excellent wedge play. Unless there are either cold or wet conditions, I highly doubt the players I just listed stand much of a chance of winning.
I’ve also taken out the low-ball hitters off my list of potential winners. They include:
- Sang-Moon Bae
- Jason Dufner
- Ken Duke
- Branden Grace
- Miguel Jimenez
- Matteo Manassero
- Graeme McDowell
- D.A. Points
- Boo Weekley
- Y.E. Yang
That leads me to filtering out the last group of players who have struggled from the Danger Zone this year. They are:
- Lucas Glover
- Ernie Els
- Rickie Fowler
- Bill Haas
- Russell Henley
- John Huh
- Ryan Moore
- Webb Simpson
- Lee Westwood
That leaves me with the 23 players who can win the Masters. They are listed alphabetically.
- Keegan Bradley
- Angel Cabrera
- Stewart Cink
- Jason Day
- Luke Donald
- Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
- Sergio Garcia
- Matt Kuchar
- Marc Leishman
- Hunter Mahan
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Rory McIlroy
- Phil Mickelson
- Justin Rose
- Charl Schwartzel
- Adam Scott
- Vijay Singh
- Brandt Snedeker
- Henrik Stenson
- Steve Stricker
- Nick Watney
- Bubba Watson
- Gary Woodland
Of those 23 players, here are my top-10 picks to win The Masters:
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)*
- Adam Scott (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (11/1)
- Jason Day (14/1)
- Matt Kuchar (20/1)
- Bubba Watson (25/1)
- Justin Rose (28/1)
- Brandt Snedeker (33/1)
- Keegan Bradley (33/1)
- Marc Leishman (100/1)
*Odds from Bovada accurate as of 4/7/14 at 11 a.m.
Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: We’re talking about practice! My best tips for taking your game to the course
With the beginning of June on the horizon and courses rounding into peak condition for the season, it’s time to hone the finer skills that often get rusty over the winter. More sunlight also means more time to get out on the course and work on your game.
Whether it’s the practice green or the driving range, there’s always something to improve—whether you’re enjoying the fresh air or preparing for a weekend game or tournament. You can work on drills or freestyle around the green, and friendly competition is a great way to sharpen your skills.
While there are endless ways to get better at golf, I’m going to focus on practicing around the green. Let’s take a look at a few things to keep in mind as we head into the summer months.
Drills
From the driving range to the practice green, it’s important to incorporate drills into your routine. Years ago, I spent a weekend working on my short game with James Sieckmann. He recommended doing drill work for 5–10 minutes, then returning to your main practice.
This way, you create a balance between structured drills and real-world scenarios, so you’re not confined to “perfect” situations. For example, hitting the same three-foot putt over and over is good for repetition, but after a while, it becomes less interactive for your brain.
My approach is to use a putting trainer with a narrow gate for the ball to pass through, or simply place tees just outside the width of the ball. I’ll hit a series of four putts through the gate for three sets. Then, from a similar distance, I’ll hit four putts without the training aid and repeat that sequence three times.
Next, I’ll hit a number of 15–25 foot putts in a random fashion, then circle back to repeat the short putt drills with and without the training aid.
This breaks up the rhythm of hitting short putts with the training aid. When you hit the same short putts over and over, it’s easy to get into a groove—which is great for the drill, but not reflective of actual course play. While finding a rhythm is fundamental for drills, I like to introduce variation with longer putts to keep things realistic.
Game Mode
Once you’ve established a foundation with drills, it’s time to simulate on-course scenarios. This is where a few practice games come in handy.
One that I’ve been enjoying lately involves putting 10- to 15-footers with two balls. If I make the putt, great! If I miss, I pull the missed ball back a putter length. Suddenly, that little tap-in becomes a nerve-wracking three-footer—at least at first. As you get better at this game, those three- and five-footers become much more comfortable and routine.
It may sound cliché, but each shot is just what it is—it’s how we react that makes the difference. I like this game because it blends the pressure of on-course putting with the consequence of leaving yourself a much longer putt than usual.
Another game I like is one I recently learned from Brad Faxon. Place three tees in a line at four different locations around the hole: one at 3 feet, one at 6 feet, and one at 8 feet. The 3- and 6-foot putts count as par, and the 8-footer is for birdie.
This game keeps you focused on scoring and helps you get into a competitive mindset. You can even think about this putting game while you’re on the course. I just started playing it, and last week I couldn’t get better than two under par.
Competition
Competition during practice is when drills and games come to life, and you start to see results. For me, nothing beats a putting contest with a friend or two. In the right setting, these contests can become talking points for the whole season.
Match play, a game of 21, or simply seeing who can make the most one-putts (with a small prize on the line) are all great ways to simulate real on-course pressure. Recently, I played in a putting contest where one competitor made back-to-back 30- and 50-foot putts. As they say, expect your opponent to make every putt—and he nearly did. That’s impressive, and it’s something you see on the course, too: you have to stay committed to your game plan, no matter what.
When it comes to practice, it’s important to blend feedback from recent rounds with the fundamentals you want to reinforce. Drills, games, and competition—from the driving range to the putting green—form the backbone of skills you’ll rely on during actual rounds.
Finding the right balance is something we’re all working on, one practice session at a time. With the beginning of June on the horizon and courses rounding into peak condition for the season, it’s time to hone the finer skills that often get rusty over the winter. More sunlight also means more time to get out on the course and work on your game. Whether it’s the practice green or the driving range, there’s always something to improve—whether you’re enjoying the fresh air or preparing for a weekend game or tournament. You can work on drills or freestyle around the green, and friendly competition is a great way to sharpen your skills. While there are endless ways to get better at golf, I’m going to focus on practicing around the green. Let’s take a look at a few things to keep in mind as we head into the summer months.
Drills
From the driving range to the practice green, it’s important to incorporate drills into your routine. Years ago, I spent a weekend working on my short game with James Sieckmann. He recommended doing drill work for 5–10 minutes, then returning to your main practice. This way, you create a balance between structured drills and real-world scenarios, so you’re not confined to “perfect” situations. For example, hitting the same three-foot putt over and over is good for repetition, but after a while, it becomes less interactive for your brain.
My approach is to use a putting trainer with a narrow gate for the ball to pass through, or simply place tees just outside the width of the ball. I’ll hit a series of four putts through the gate for three sets. Then, from a similar distance, I’ll hit four putts without the training aid and repeat that sequence three times. Next, I’ll hit a number of 15–25 foot putts in a random fashion, then circle back to repeat the short putt drills with and without the training aid.
This breaks up the rhythm of hitting short putts with the training aid. When you hit the same short putts over and over, it’s easy to get into a groove—which is great for the drill, but not reflective of actual course play. While finding a rhythm is fundamental for drills, I like to introduce variation with longer putts to keep things realistic.
Game Mode
Once you’ve established a foundation with drills, it’s time to simulate on-course scenarios. This is where a few practice games come in handy. One that I’ve been enjoying lately involves putting 10- to 15-footers with two balls. If I make the putt, great! If I miss, I pull the missed ball back a putter length.
Suddenly, that little tap-in becomes a nerve-wracking three-footer—at least at first. As you get better at this game, those three- and five-footers become much more comfortable and routine. It may sound cliché, but each shot is just what it is—it’s how we react that makes the difference. I like this game because it blends the pressure of on-course putting with the consequence of leaving yourself a much longer putt than usual.
Another game I like is one I recently learned from Brad Faxon. Place three tees in a line at four different locations around the hole: one at 3 feet, one at 6 feet, and one at 8 feet. The 3- and 6-foot putts count as par, and the 8-footer is for birdie.
This game keeps you focused on scoring and helps you get into a competitive mindset. You can even think about this putting game while you’re on the course. I just started playing it, and last week I couldn’t get better than two under par.
Competition
Competition during practice is when drills and games come to life, and you start to see results. For me, nothing beats a putting contest with a friend or two. In the right setting, these contests can become talking points for the whole season. Match play, a game of 21, or simply seeing who can make the most one-putts (with a small prize on the line) are all great ways to simulate real on-course pressure. Recently, I played in a putting contest where one competitor made back-to-back 30- and 50-foot putts. As they say, expect your opponent to make every putt—and he nearly did. That’s impressive, and it’s something you see on the course, too: you have to stay committed to your game plan, no matter what.
When it comes to practice, it’s important to blend feedback from recent rounds with the fundamentals you want to reinforce. Drills, games, and competition—from the driving range to the putting green—form the backbone of skills you’ll rely on during actual rounds. Finding the right balance is something we’re all working on, one practice session at a time.
For Korean golfers, we always look forward to the last of the kkot-saem-chu-I for the true start of a new golf season. The term refers to a cold snap, but literally translates as “winter being jealous of the flowers beginning to bloom, thus lashing out one final time before surrendering to spring”.
A rather poetic mouthful packed into a short expression.
Koreans can be like that. Understated, yet oddly expressive at the same time. And nowhere is this more true on the golf course and in our golf bags. In fact, I suspect many Korean golfers look forward to new apparel and accessory drops more than they do actual equipment launches each year.
At this point, Korean golf fashion may exist on its own timeline. (courtesy of @seonbi_golfer)
There is ample evidence to support that suspicion. Korea is the world’s third-largest golf market behind the United States and Japan, yet its appetite for golf apparel exceeds that of both countries combined. Recent estimates suggest that Korea accounts for nearly 40 percent of the global golf apparel market, placing it among the world’s most influential golf fashion markets and punching well above its size.
Simply, we care deeply about how new golf clubs look and feel, but enjoy looking good while swinging them even more.
Golfers in the West may laugh and say that golf is played on a course, not a fashion runway. Perhaps. But what’s the harm in trying to look and feel good, if the added self-confidence can help actual performance? It certainly seems to have worked for Jason Day, who may have unlocked a new stats category: dormant strokes gained. Coincidence?
During the COVID-era, estimates placed the market near $9 billion, an astonishing figure for a single country.
As a proud member of Gen X, I’ve witnessed the highs and lows of golf fashion firsthand. The pleated trousers and wing-tipped shoes of Jack Nicklaus, the stylish plus-fours and knickers of Payne Stewart, the baggy black trousers and fitted mock-necks of Tiger Woods, and the thigh-hugging athletic tailoring of Rory McIlroy. Golf fashion, like the golf swing itself, has rarely stood still.
But nowhere have those trends shifted, evolved, and been scrutinized quite as relentlessly as in Korea. Here, golf fashion moves faster than fairway gossip, and consumers dissect brands with a level of discernment that can be both impressive and mildly terrifying. New brands are studied, judged, embraced, or dismissed with startling efficiency.
The result is a consumer base with one of the sharpest eyes for quality and authenticity anywhere in the world. It is difficult to quantify, but easy to recognize. Clean lines without trying too hard. Luxury mixed with utility. Trend awareness balanced by restraint and purpose.
It’s golf fashion shaped by one of the world’s most style-literate cities, something I like to call Seoul Sensibilities, referring to the taste level forged by a uniquely competitive environment.
And increasingly, global brands have noticed.
Many golf brands in Korea have their own flagship shops dedicated to apparel only
Titleist understood this years ago, when its apparel business in Korea took on a life of its own under new ownership and local direction. What had once been a straightforward extension of an iconic equipment giant became something sharper and more premium. By going all in on the serious Tour-player look (I couldn’t even fit into their XL sizes), Titleist struck the right chord with Korean consumers and helped its fledgling apparel business break into the mainstream. Titleist became a household name even for non-golfers who wore its caps, shirts, and windbreakers in daily life. In many ways, it proved that even heritage golf brands could carry real fashion credibility when viewed through a Korean lens.
Several years later, PXG took a page out of Titleist’s playbook and followed suit. Korean consumers helped transform the brand from one known largely for irons and loud commercials into something broader and more stylish. PXG apparel’s growth in Korea was explosive, where it found an early audience and turned the category into something more than mere logo merchandise. It is still hard to walk anywhere in Seoul without seeing its palindrome logo.
Malbon’s meteoric rise in the United States was genuine, but its ascent into a global golf lifestyle brand owes much to Korea, where it was elevated by a market already fluent in modern golf style. Korea did not simply embrace Malbon. It pressure-tested the concept, refined its appeal, and helped push it into the global spotlight.
As such, new brands may arrive from abroad, but more often than not, their sharpest evolution happens here. If a brand can earn credibility in Seoul, it’s deemed to have passed one of the toughest style audits in the game.
That is why the next meaningful chapter may not come from outside, but from a Korean brand moving in the opposite direction, carrying those Seoul Sensibilities outward as K-pop once did.
Play young Stay dope.
From Seoul, With Intent
Khalhon is a label that feels less like a trend-chasing newcomer and more like the product of a market that has already seen everything. Golfers here have long been surrounded by luxury logos, technical fabrics, and tour uniforms disguised as lifestyle wear and vice-versa. In other words, novelty alone rarely lasts here, and the Koreans seems to understand that instinctively.
Its style language leans into clean silhouettes, relaxed but tailored proportions, muted palettes, and premium materials that speak quietly but confidently. There is a modern city aesthetic running through it all, with strong layering pieces, thoughtful textures, and subtle branding that suggests sophistication rather than demanding attention.
“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
Most importantly, the garments seem designed to blur the line between golfwear and everyday style. Shirts, trousers, knitwear, and outer layers move comfortably between a game of screen golf, a lunch reservation, an airport gate, or an afternoon coffee in Gangnam with friends.
It raises the question of whether this is golfwear that happens to look good off the course, or everyday clothing that performs beautifully on the fairways.
Personally, I have long appreciated Nike Golf for its clean, athletic modernization of golf attire. It also has the useful side effect of making me look like a more serious golfer than I probably am. But off the course, there are times when being instantly identified as the golf guy in a crowd of non-golfers can feel a touch self-conscious.
“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
That is part of what drew me to Khalhon, which seemed to blend golf and everyday wear naturally. While some of the outfits may be slightly beyond my personal confidence level, the brand also offers tasteful options for older guys like me who still want to express a little personality without regretting the decision later.
These are not simply flashy outfits worn on the course and then banished to the closet until the next tee time. They work surprisingly well off the course too, and I suspect many of the pieces will still look right a couple of years from now, which would certainly be kinder to my wallet than most golf fashion trends tend to be.
And perhaps that broader lifestyle positioning also helps explain why someone like Sean Wotherspoon would find Khalhon creatively interesting in the first place.
“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
“Korea is not only one of the most fashion-forward golf markets in the world, but one of the most fashion-forward markets globally. Korea is ahead, and I love to watch and try to catch up.” – Sean Wotherspoon, Creative Director at Khalhon
Seoul and Beyond
If Khalhon’s rise says something about where Korean golf fashion is today, its relationship with Sean Wotherspoon says even more about where it is heading.
For readers less familiar with Sean Wotherspoon, his arrival at Khalhon is not some routine celebrity endorsement or influencer collaboration. In design and streetwear circles, Wotherspoon is regarded as one of the more influential creative voices of his generation, particularly when it comes to blending nostalgia, storytelling, and contemporary culture into products that people can connect with.
He first gained widespread attention through his now-famous Nike sneaker collaborations, where his vintage-inspired designs and instinct for color helped turn him into one of the defining artists of the late-2010s sneaker era. His work gradually expanded beyond footwear into apparel, automotive collaborations, collectibles, and broader lifestyle design.
Modern golf style now extends well beyond the fairways, where performance and functionality are largely expected by default. And while plenty of brands already make technically competent golfwear, Khalhon seems more focused on designing clothes people would genuinely want to wear even after the round ends.
And when guys at Wotherspoon’s level show genuine interest in working with a Korean golf brand as its new Creative Director, fashion circles tend to sit up and pay attention. There’s already a huge buzz among the fashion-conscious here about upcoming collabs with iconic sports stars and brands.
“My creative direction for Khalhon is disruptive, colorful, nostalgic, and modern. My goal is to blend these avenues seamlessly within each collection.” – Sean Wotherspoon
In chatting with Sean, what stood out most to me was how genuinely energized he sounded about the project itself. Despite having already worked across and countless other creative spaces, he described golf as a completely fresh category for him, saying that Khalhon “will be an amazing vehicle for my design work.”
At the same time, his enthusiasm seemed tied just as much to Korea itself. He spoke openly about admiring Korea’s fashion culture while repeatedly insisting he is still a terrible golfer.
There was something oddly refreshing about that humility. Rather than sounding like a celebrity parachuting into golf simply because the category suddenly became fashionable, Sean sounded genuinely curious about what Korea might do with the category next.
And perhaps that is what makes Khalhon feel interesting right now. The brand feels less like a trend-chaser and more like the natural result of a market now confident enough to export its own point of view.
For years, global brands came to Korea to sharpen their image against one of the most discerning audiences anywhere. Now, a Korean label appears ready to send those Seoul Sensibilities outward instead.
Which brings us back to kkot-saem-chu-i.
That final cold snap before spring always arrives with a reminder that seasons are changing, whether we notice it immediately or not. Golf fashion feels a little like that right now as well, as the old boundaries between sport, streetwear, luxury, and everyday style continue to soften.
And somewhere in Seoul, a Korean golf label already seems prepared for whatever season comes next. I just hope they have everything in my size.
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Charles Schwab Challenge Tour Report: MacIntyre, Åberg and Spaun all switch putters, TaylorMade launches new Spider
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GolfWRX Launch Report: 2026 Titleist GTS drivers
Photos from the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge
PGA Championship Tour Report: Fitzpatrick, Koepka among big-name putter switches for Aronimink
Photos from the ShopRite LPGA
Maria Torres WITB 2026 (June)
Driver: Ping G440 LST (9 degrees) Shaft: Accra TourZ Green 5-M4 3-wood: Ping G440 Max (15 degrees) Shaft: Accra TourZ Green 6-M4 5-wood: Ping G440...
Eric Cole WITB 2026 (June)
Driver: PXG Lightning Tour Max (9 degrees) Shaft: Project X Titan Yellow 70 TX 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi4D (15 degrees) Shaft:...
Si Woo Kim WITB 2026 (May)
Driver: Callaway Quantum Triple Diamond (8.5 degrees) Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Black 6 X Mini driver: Callaway Paradym Ai Smoke Mini...
Wyndham Clark’s winning WITB: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Driver: TaylorMade Qi4D (10.5 degrees) Shaft: Project X Titan Yellow 60 TX 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi4D Tour (15 degrees) Shaft: Project...
In Ly Nhua Nap Cau
Jan 2, 2019 at 10:46 am
Very informative and interesting article. Well done.
Love Leishman as a surprise pick.
dvillacenta
Apr 19, 2019 at 4:15 am
i agree
mua c?n h? safira khang ?i?n
Aug 25, 2018 at 4:13 am
Very informative and interesting article. Well done.
Love Leishman as a surprise pick.
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c?n h? sapphire
Jul 11, 2018 at 12:55 pm
thought this was a great read and the more i read it the more i liked it . this week its so falling to place that rory ,phil and adam scott are the three to watch but if you want a hint of form –bradley ,scott and big phil are the three that you should take a dart and stick the wage packet on one of them
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Bubba W., Orlando
Apr 14, 2014 at 6:40 pm
Great performances by Spieth, Blixt, Kuchar and Langer
Bubba W., Orlando
Apr 14, 2014 at 6:43 pm
btw, isnt it amazing to see Langer and Couples still doing so well against the young guns?
Alex
May 7, 2014 at 4:24 am
yea thats great!
DavePelz4
Apr 14, 2014 at 5:35 pm
Technically, there have been 3 first time winners. Horton Smith won the very first Invitational tournament held at ANGC. Gene Sarazen also was a winner in his first tournament.
cole
Apr 13, 2014 at 8:33 pm
Nice Top tens. Picking three of ten seems good to me!
Richie Hunt
Apr 14, 2014 at 1:38 pm
Thanks. The winner was more important to me. The editor, Zak, asked me who I had and I picked Bubba.
I also stated that I thought this was the best group of 1st time invitees we had since I can remember. I think the 1st time invitee curse is mostly due to the hoopla and hysteria of going to the Masters for the first time. Even if you’ve played the course before, the actual tournament is a different story. I think the other part behind the curse is that there is a lot of pressure of winning the Masters for the first time combined with the likelihood of it being your first major championship victory.
bigbadbullfrog
Apr 11, 2014 at 11:38 am
“Keegan Bradley has a major under his belt. I think he has more than the stomach for it. In fact, I think he screams ‘GET IN MY BELLY!’” SMH. He’s saying ‘get in my belly’ to the weekend breakfast special at Waffle House because he certainly isn’t making the cut.
Richie Hunt
Apr 11, 2014 at 3:47 pm
And Zach Johnson doesn’t appear to be making the cut either. The main point is that saying Keegan doesn’t have the stomach to win a major…..and he’s already won a major doesn’t make much sense.
Dennis
Apr 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm
Very solid list. Sure the winner is in.
I will follow the frenchie Dubuisson, he was just amazing at the WGC Matchplay Championship.
Kevin McGarrahan
Apr 9, 2014 at 5:01 pm
I would not count out Patrick Reed. Although it is his first time at the Masters, it is not his first time playing Augusta National. He attended Augusta State University and played some of his collegiate golf at Augusta. That gives him a large advantage over all the other first timers.
Rich
Apr 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm
Yes it certainly seemed to help him…………………….
brad
May 1, 2014 at 8:02 am
Honestly I don’t see him as a fixture. I think he’ll play well every few years, but then remain in that 60-70 bracket in the world ranks. Attitude is everything, and he lacks it. He did play well for a few weeks though.
Denis Larkin
Apr 9, 2014 at 6:33 am
thought this was a great read and the more i read it the more i liked it . this week its so falling to place that rory ,phil and adam scott are the three to watch but if you want a hint of form –bradley ,scott and big phil are the three that you should take a dart and stick the wage packet on one of them .
Tony Peace
Apr 9, 2014 at 5:48 am
Well,you’ve eliminated my 4 picks of Zach,Ricky,Ernie & Trev Immelmann. Interesting to see how you fare. Good luck.
baljit
Apr 9, 2014 at 12:52 am
The guy condemning Rory clearly has not seen him hit balls in person.
Striking out the first timers based on tournament history sounds logical. but looking at the qualities of the first timers in field, Im not surprised if one of them wins
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2014 at 10:47 am
I do think that this is the best 1-time invitee group of golfers we have had in a long time. It wouldn’t shock me if a player won, but it’s historically been difficult to win the first time playing any event on Tour. Particularly the Masters.
baljit
Apr 30, 2014 at 9:45 am
and two newbies nearly won it…i rest my case
LMB
Apr 8, 2014 at 10:19 pm
I get the way you did this list, but you have Vijay Singh on there with a chance to win but not Bernhard Langer? IMHO Bernhard is a much more solid/consistant player and would probably wipe the floor with Vijay if they were competing in matchplay.
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2014 at 10:51 am
Vijay hits it higher and longer. He is also striking the ball quite well this year, particularly from 175-225 yards.
LMB
Apr 14, 2014 at 11:59 pm
Langer T-8…..Vijay???? No where to be seen. I rest my case.
Nagar
Apr 8, 2014 at 8:25 pm
Good article. I feel Jason Day has a huge chance in winning. He has been near or near a bouts for 3 years now and is due for a major win.
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Rob
Apr 8, 2014 at 6:13 pm
No love for Dufner? He may not win, but I’d bet on a top 10 finish for the Dufman.
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2014 at 10:54 am
2nd lowest trajectory on Tour. Also plays a fade. Love him as a player, but Augusta is a tough fit for him.
PBGS
Apr 8, 2014 at 12:58 pm
Luke Donald is considered long enough?
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2014 at 10:55 am
Not just based off distance, but club head speed. Luke is generating about 111 to 112 mph of club head speed. Trajectory is so important at ANGC and Luke has enough speed and hits it high. He’s borderline, but since he’s played very well in the past, I gave him the nod.
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Mathieu
Apr 8, 2014 at 12:00 pm
very interesting, thanks,
any thoughts on Dubuisson, even if he’s never played Augusta?
Richie Hunt
Apr 9, 2014 at 11:03 am
Good driver of the ball that excels from 125-175 yard shots (ranked #1 on Tour). But poor from the Danger Zone (142nd) mainly because he has struggled to keep those shots in the fairway. He could stand a good chance here because he’s 8th in shots from the fairway and the rough at ANGC is negligible. Has putted terribly this year (174th in Putts Gained)
Mathieu
Apr 11, 2014 at 2:00 am
I guess he’s learning how to play in the USA. I think stats don’t count for him this year he’s improving every week, espacially on putting (slower greens in europe), we’ll see then. thanks
Javier
Apr 8, 2014 at 6:10 am
A very reasonable list, I like it.
Agree with you; Rory, Mickelson and Scott are the favorites, but I’d love that any of the Spaniards win the tournament, specially Sergio or Jimenez.
Kyle
Apr 8, 2014 at 4:34 am
Not sure how the weathers going to be but i seen on the news yesterdays practice rounds were cancelled due to storms, Would you say the wetter weather will play into other players hands vs certain others?
Anyone any idea about if Jason Days hand is ok? Nick Faldo mentioned he had injured it yesterday
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2014 at 8:57 am
Depends on how wet it gets. If it makes for the greens to be softer, then the shorter hitters that strike their long approach shots well (i.e. Zach) have more of a chance. If it is soaked and the ball is not rolling off the tee, then it could start to favor their longer hitters because they can carry it further.
Joel
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:45 pm
In my humble opinion, I believe at ANGC, the “danger zone” should be differentiated between 175-200 and 200-225. A player could be pretty average from 200-225(Bubba Watson) but solid from 175ish and win. The same goes for Lee Westwood, and even though he’s not as long as Bubba, I think he plays to his strengths and weaknesses when it comes to 200+ approaches. Also, for what it’s worth, Zach Johnson is ahead of both Kuchar and Snedeker in regards to distance in 2014. I like him over both of those guys. That being said, 8 out of 10 on this list is flat out amazing.
Joel
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:48 pm
Sorry for the duplicate entries there. For some reason my 1st comment didnt show up for several hours. I suppose I’m REALLY pushing for Zach Johnson.
Joel
Apr 13, 2014 at 1:03 pm
How’d my Zach Johnson pick go?
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2014 at 9:01 am
When I examine courses and what approach shots have the most strokes gained/lost from I actually look at it in 25-yard increments instead of 50-yard increments. Both 175-200 yards and 200-225 yards are where a lot of strokes are lost and gained. Not only on the par-4’s and par-3’s, but on the par-5’s. So if a long hitter like Bubba bombs one on a par-5 and has 215 yards into the hole, it doesn’t do him much good if he can’t execute from 215 yards.
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Sky
Apr 7, 2014 at 7:29 pm
I think it’s a very solid list. I would call Kuchar a shorter hitter and a low ball hitter though.
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2014 at 9:03 am
Thanks, Sky. I base short hitting not only on distance, but club head speed. I base low ball hitting based on what the Max Height averages reported from ShotLink. Kuchar is not terribly short nor does he hit it terribly low. I will say like Luke Donald, he’s on the borderline (Donald actually hits it high). But given his success here in the past in good weather conditions and his recent play I put him on the list.
Nick Boyd
Apr 7, 2014 at 6:33 pm
Fred Couples seems to be in the mix every year on sunday, thats the one that sticks out to me as a booboo. Interesting process of elimination and good read overall!
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2014 at 1:21 am
My issue with Freddie is I don’t think his back would hold up.
Nick Boyd
Apr 8, 2014 at 5:53 pm
Its Augusta – Freddy lives for Augusta
Jack Michaels
Apr 9, 2014 at 1:31 pm
I agree. Couples’ history at Augusta is so stella in recent years, plus his form on the Champions Tour has been great. At the 175/1 I got I think that Freddy is a solid each way bet.
leftright
Apr 7, 2014 at 4:46 pm
Rich,
I’ll give you your 10 and take the rest for $100. Please email me if you want the bet and anyone else who wants the bet I’ll take it. You take Rich’s 10 and I’ll take the rest.
leftright
Apr 7, 2014 at 4:50 pm
I only made this comment to be sort of in your face because it is going to be real wet this year it seems. Brings many others into play. Personally I hop Phil wins…ABT.
Jason
Apr 9, 2014 at 12:40 am
Ill take the bet of his top 23 Vs Field. 10 vs 80 is a little lopsided.
Joel
Apr 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm
Maybe I’m a dork but I love this stuff, and 8 out of 10 is incredible. If I can play devils advocate, it seems to me that there are players where “Danger Zone” avoidance is more important than danger zone play. Westwood and Watson are two that come to mind. Is it possible the sample size is smaller for them because they’re aware of this weakness? Both struggle from 200-225 but neither often leave themselves that far out(on 4’s or 5’s at Augusta.) It seems obvious but I wonder if Bubba had the fewest “danger zone” attempts two years ago. You have Zach Johnson listed as “too short” but he actually leads Snedeker and Kuchar in driving distance in 2014-I think he’s got a legitimate shot. For a longshot, and I know his putting can be sketchy, but I like Woodland. I have no statistics to back it up either:)
Kevin
Apr 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm
I really liked this article, a great way to look at this topic.
My one question is, why didn’t Luke Donald fall into your “too short” category? I don’t feel he’s any longer than the others you mentioned. His average finish in driving distance is in the high 160s or low 170s, so there’s only like 10 guys on the PGA Tour each year who, on average, hit their drives shorter than him.
Richie Hunt
Apr 7, 2014 at 5:18 pm
I measure ‘too short’ not only on distance, but based on club head speed. Donald also hits the ball much higher. He’s really on the borderline, but since he has played well at ANGC in the past, I kept him in the top-23
west
Apr 7, 2014 at 2:38 pm
Whaaaaat?!?! Making predictions like this are “speculative” at best. Sports, especially golf, has soooo many factors you couldn’t possibly factor or weigh them all in a way that might contribute to making an accurate prediction. Can’t wait to see how things turn out this week. You’re playing the lotto here, and my only prediction is that someone will win that is not on your top ten list…
west
Apr 7, 2014 at 2:39 pm
Did the Final Four teach you nothing this year? 😉
Richie Hunt
Apr 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm
There are many common trends that and statistical probabilities that favor certain types of players on each course on Tour. Your odds of seeing somebody like Tim Clark win here are very slim. Yet, a course like Sawgrass will play much more into his favor and is why he has won there. Last year, 8 of the top-10 finishers were in my final 23. The only players that were not were Jason Day (bad Danger Zone play) and Thorbjorn Olesen (a European player I have no data on).
Keith
Apr 7, 2014 at 3:33 pm
Day is 16th on the Fed Ex Cup and Won the World Cup and the World Matchplay? How is that in the Danger Zone.
Ryan
Apr 7, 2014 at 4:59 pm
Actually read the article and maybe you’ll learn what the Danger Zone is.
Grog
Apr 8, 2014 at 11:46 am
Bahahaha
John
Apr 7, 2014 at 2:20 pm
Very informative and interesting article. Well done.
Love Leishman as a surprise pick.
Mx
Apr 7, 2014 at 3:02 pm
Not really a surprise as he has already played extremely well at augusta. Can’t remember what year it was though. I would never rule out DJ, Poulter and, after last years performance, Thorbjorn Olesen.
John
Apr 7, 2014 at 5:23 pm
his odds are 100/1 to win. I’d call that a surprise if he did.
Dude McDude
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:56 am
“They are, in no particular order”
Except they are in alphabetical order…
Zak Kozuchowski
Apr 7, 2014 at 12:06 pm
You got me. That’s the editor’s fault, and I’m correcting it.
Jamie Kennedy
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:43 am
FYI – Senden has made the cut. He finished T35th last year.
Richie Hunt
Apr 7, 2014 at 12:05 pm
You know what? You’re right. When I was looking at his past history on Wikipedia, I got the columns screwed up. I think he stands a chance since he is a good Danger Zone player (shots from 150+ yards), but his record at ANGC has not been good.
nikkyd
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:21 am
Rory mcilroy has got to be the most over rated young player on tour. And a whiner at best.
T
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:26 am
do you have any stats to back that up??? Seeing as this is an article about statistics…not ridiculous intangibles…regardless how is a two time major winner before the age of 24 overrated?
Pudo
Apr 8, 2014 at 1:17 pm
Word! Rors is Top Notch material! If he was a Yankee he’d be your man all day long.! Wake the f**k up Nikkyd!
Jacob
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:42 am
2 Majors championships is over-rated? You have very high standards sir.
Sean Edwards
Apr 7, 2014 at 12:02 pm
Overrated? Two majors, and three wins in 4 weeks? Overrated?? He has more talent in his pinky than half of the tour players. Quit making ignorant statements with no evidence to back it up. Go Rory!!!
Richie Hunt
Apr 7, 2014 at 12:09 pm
He’s won 2 majors including a blow-out victory at the US Open and won the PGA decisively. He was leading the Masters in decisive fashion until blowing up on the final day. And then he did the interview afterward despite being heartbroken (he had yet to have won a major at that time) and handled the interview as professionally and as maturely as anybody I have ever seen. And he’s only 24 years old. He hasn’t been perfect in his behavior, but he has acted very maturely, kindly and in general I find him to be a terrific representative of the game of golf.
Craig Peckham
Apr 8, 2014 at 1:00 am
I have said this for a while about Rory McIlroy; he has only won primarily in ‘soft’ conditions. As Tiger once said about Rory, he will win more when he learns the nuances of the game. If it rains before or during the Masters week and the wind stays down, look for Rory to be in contention (Top 5), otherwise I don’t think he will be in the Top 10. He simply doesn’t have the variety of shots, or doesn’t have the confidence yet to use when called for. As for Mr. Richie Hunt, I am surprised that in your statistical analysis you didn’t factor in age. Aren’t most Masters winners over 30 and primarily under 35 (with some exceptions of course). The age factor presumably would mean enough PGA Tour and competitive experience combined with athletic ability.
Björn
Apr 9, 2014 at 2:43 am
Rory grew up playing Royal County Down. One of the best golf courses in the workd and without a doubt one of the windiest. It also has very firm greens and requires a reportoir of shots that no course in the US requires. I think he has it all.
T
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:20 am
Love the article and the in depth statistical analysis. I do have a question or two about where you get your stats. Let’s take Ryan Moore for instance. He is currently ranked #2 in GIR from 175-200 yds & #11 in Approaches from the same distance as of the SHO so should he really be eliminated because of the “danger zone” stat? He may not be a solid contender but his current form and history at Augusta make him an intriguing pick just below the favorites.
Richie Hunt
Apr 7, 2014 at 12:03 pm
Danger Zone is based on proximity to the cup. It is also based on shots from 175-225 yards. What is interesting is that I created a formula that took proximity to the cup and the % of greens *missed*. The lowest combination of the two would be the ‘best.’ I’ve found that from 125-175 yards being the best at these two (prox 2 cup + greens missed %), this was statistically very important. But from 175+ yards, not so much. From 175+ yards it is more about getting the ball closer to the hole.
I don’t have this off the top of my head, but Moore was ranked in the bottom half in Danger Zone play this year. So I think you’re likely over-valueing GIR % from that distance and not counting in shots from 200-225 yards.
Nick
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:06 am
Zach Johnson is too short to play Augusta? Really? He’s as long as he was in 2007… when he won at Augusta.
Matt
Apr 7, 2014 at 11:10 am
I think Rich explained why he said ZJ was too short and gave a brief explanation to why he believes he was able to compete in 07.
leftright
Apr 7, 2014 at 4:54 pm
The most important stat is “who has got the head for it.” That pretty much eliminates 5 of the 10 off the bat. You have to fail before you succeed and Snedeker, Leishman, Day, Bradley and Kuchar have to fail first, despite the PGA wins. None of those guys have to stomach for it yet.
kent
Apr 7, 2014 at 8:43 pm
leftright….while I do agree with you that many of those do not likely have the stomach, Watson disproved that theory with his win a couple years ago. As much fun as he is to watch, I can’t remember a more shaky looking player in contention (not sure if you caught his skulled chip earlier this year). And yet, he hit one great shot from the trees to earn his jacket. I’d certainly put my money on all those you listed over Bubba a couple years ago.
leftright
Apr 8, 2014 at 3:00 pm
I sort of agree but if Bubba had Tiger or Jack’s “stomach” he would have won 15 majors by now. They talk about Tiger’s talent but Bubba may have the most talent ever. Essentially, and this is from personal experience and speaking with many real good players, 99% of golfers really don’t have the stomach for it. The mind is the most underrated part of golf and most underrated skill. I personally would like to see more psychiatric articles because my mind is beating me to death most of the time and probably many of you. Do the hibijeebees control you or do you control them? Tiger and Jack controlled them best if they even had them.
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2014 at 1:23 am
Keegan Bradley has a major under his belt. I think he has more than the stomach for it. In fact, I think he screams ‘GET IN MY BELLY!’