Opinion & Analysis
What are the odds? (Hole-in-one, becoming a pro golfer, and more)
Golf has been my faithful companion for 45 years now. My love affair with this magnificent game began in 1980 when I was just 5 years old, swinging clubs that seemed impossibly large in my small hands. Today, at almost 50 (May 24th), I can look back on a life intertwined with golf—not just as a player, but as someone who has made it my livelihood since 1996. Becoming a PGA Professional and Coach in 2009 was the culmination of a journey that started on dewy morning greens all those decades ago.
But as I reflect on my lifetime in golf, I’m struck by something that makes this game so uniquely challenging and rewarding: the sheer improbability of achievement at its highest levels. Golf is perhaps the only major sport where perfection is mathematically impossible, and excellence is statistically improbable.
Let’s explore what makes this game so humbling, yet so addictive, by examining the odds of various achievements.
Coveted Shots
The hole-in-one represents golf’s perfect moment—a single stroke that finds the bottom of the cup. For the average golfer, the odds of making a hole-in-one are approximately 12,000 to 1. For tour professionals, those odds improve dramatically to about 3,000 to 1. I’ve been fortunate enough to witness several, though my own has remained elusive.
Eagles on par-5 holes are more attainable, with odds of about 250 to 1 for average golfers. Tour professionals make eagles on par-5s at a rate of about 1 in every 23 attempts. Eagles on par-4s, however, are far rarer. For amateur golfers, the odds are roughly 6,000 to 1, while tour professionals face odds of about 1,000 to 1.
The double eagle (or albatross)—scoring three under par on a single hole—represents one of golf’s rarest achievements. The odds for an average golfer are approximately 1 million to 1. Even for professionals, it’s about 60,000 to 1. To put this in perspective, the odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime are about 15,000 to 1—making a double eagle more than four times less likely.
Scoring
Breaking scoring barriers represents significant milestones in a golfer’s journey. Breaking 100 is achievable for most dedicated beginners, with about 55% of all golfers eventually reaching this milestone. Breaking 90 becomes more challenging, with approximately 25% of all golfers achieving this level.
The odds become considerably steeper when we look at breaking 80, with only about 5% of all golfers ever reaching this benchmark. Breaking 70 is rarer still—less than 0.5% of all golfers will ever card a round in the 60s.
And breaking 60? The odds are astronomical.
In PGA Tour history, there have been 15 sub-60 rounds in official events. These include 14 rounds of 59 and one round of 58, which was shot by Jim Furyk. There have been 9 sub-60 rounds on the Korn Ferry Tour. These rounds include a 57, a 58, and seven 59s. Notably, Cristobal Del Solar shot a 57 at the Astara Golf Championship, which is the lowest score ever in a PGA Tour-sanctioned event.
There has been only one sub-60 round on the LPGA Tour, and it was achieved by Annika Sörenstam with a score of 59 in 2001.
The odds of this achievement, even for the world’s elite, stand at about a 1-in-millions (less than 0.0001%).
Handicap
The USGA Handicap System provides another lens through which to view golf’s difficulty. Approximately 50-55% of golfers maintain a handicap above 15, meaning more than half of all dedicated players average at least 20 strokes over par. Only about 25% of golfers achieve a handicap below 10, representing consistent play at a relatively high level.
A scratch handicap (0) is achieved by only about 1.6% of all golfers—an exclusive club indeed. And a plus handicap (+1 or better), indicating a player who consistently scores below par, is the domain of just 0.1% of golfers worldwide. These players represent the elite amateurs and professionals who have mastered the game to an extraordinary degree.
Gaining a College Scholarship
For young golfers dreaming of playing at the collegiate level, the competition is fierce. For men seeking Division I scholarships, the odds are approximately 125 to 1 (about 0.80%), with only about 2,500 spots available nationwide. Division II offers slightly better prospects at about 85 to 1 (1.18%).
Women face better odds due to Title IX requirements and fewer participants overall. The chances of securing a Division I scholarship for women are approximately 65 to 1 (1.54%), while Division II opportunities come in at about 45 to 1 (2.3%). Still, these represent daunting odds for aspiring collegiate golfers.
Playing Professionally
The pyramid narrows dramatically when we examine professional golf. The odds of making it onto the Korn Ferry Tour (the primary pathway to the PGA TOUR) are approximately 5,000 to 1 (just 0.02%) for a dedicated junior golfer. For women, the Epson Tour presents similar challenges with odds around 4,000 to 1 (0.025%).
The DP World Tour (formerly European Tour) and PGA TOUR represent even steeper climbs, with odds of roughly 7,500 to 1 (0.013%) and 10,000 to 1 (0.01%), respectively. The Champions Tour (for players 50 and older) and LPGA Tour present odds of about 6,000 to 1 (0.017%) and 8,000 to 1 (0.0125%).
Winning on these tours represents another quantum leap in difficulty. The odds of winning on the Korn Ferry Tour are approximately 1 in 150 (0.67%) for tour members. On the PGA TOUR, even for card-carrying members, the odds of winning a single event are about 1 in 250 (0.4%). Multiple wins become exponentially more improbable.
The ultimate achievement—winning a major championship—presents nearly insurmountable odds. For a tour professional, the chances of winning a single major are approximately 1 in 500 (0.2%). Winning multiple majors? About 1 in 2,000 (0.05%). And the career Grand Slam—winning all four majors in a lifetime—has been achieved by only six men in the modern era: Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and now, in 2025, Rory McIlroy. The odds? Roughly 1 in 100,000 (0.001%), even for a tour professional.
Despite its Difficulty, Golf is Loved Worldwide
What makes these statistics so fascinating is that despite golf’s notorious difficulty, its popularity continues to soar. In 2024, a record 47.2 million Americans played golf, either on or off the course—a 45% increase since record-keeping began in 2016. On-course participation alone reached 28.1 million, the highest number since 2008, with 28% being female and 25% being Black, Asian, or Hispanic.
Globally, approximately 68 million golfers worldwide participated in the sport in 2024. If we include all individuals who have hit a golf ball with a club, whether on or off a course, the number swells to over 106 million.
This paradox—a game so difficult that statistical excellence is nearly impossible, yet so beloved by millions—speaks to golf’s unique character. Perhaps it’s precisely because perfection remains eternally out of reach that we continue to pursue it. Or maybe it’s because golf, unlike most sports, allows players of vastly different abilities to compete fairly through its handicap system.
Whatever the reason, as I look back on my 45 years with this maddening, beautiful game, I’m struck by how the improbability of mastery has never diminished my love for it. In fact, it may be the very reason I’ve dedicated my life to golf.
In a world increasingly focused on instant gratification, golf remains steadfastly, stubbornly difficult—and that’s exactly what makes it so rewarding when we occasionally, against all odds, achieve moments of excellence.
PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com.
Editor’s note: “My Take” is an ongoing series where Brendon shares his thoughts and opinions on various aspects of the game and industry. These are Brendon’s opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of GolfWRX, its staff, and its affiliates.
Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: We’re talking about practice! My best tips for taking your game to the course
With the beginning of June on the horizon and courses rounding into peak condition for the season, it’s time to hone the finer skills that often get rusty over the winter. More sunlight also means more time to get out on the course and work on your game.
Whether it’s the practice green or the driving range, there’s always something to improve—whether you’re enjoying the fresh air or preparing for a weekend game or tournament. You can work on drills or freestyle around the green, and friendly competition is a great way to sharpen your skills.
While there are endless ways to get better at golf, I’m going to focus on practicing around the green. Let’s take a look at a few things to keep in mind as we head into the summer months.
Drills
From the driving range to the practice green, it’s important to incorporate drills into your routine. Years ago, I spent a weekend working on my short game with James Sieckmann. He recommended doing drill work for 5–10 minutes, then returning to your main practice.
This way, you create a balance between structured drills and real-world scenarios, so you’re not confined to “perfect” situations. For example, hitting the same three-foot putt over and over is good for repetition, but after a while, it becomes less interactive for your brain.
My approach is to use a putting trainer with a narrow gate for the ball to pass through, or simply place tees just outside the width of the ball. I’ll hit a series of four putts through the gate for three sets. Then, from a similar distance, I’ll hit four putts without the training aid and repeat that sequence three times.
Next, I’ll hit a number of 15–25 foot putts in a random fashion, then circle back to repeat the short putt drills with and without the training aid.
This breaks up the rhythm of hitting short putts with the training aid. When you hit the same short putts over and over, it’s easy to get into a groove—which is great for the drill, but not reflective of actual course play. While finding a rhythm is fundamental for drills, I like to introduce variation with longer putts to keep things realistic.
Game Mode
Once you’ve established a foundation with drills, it’s time to simulate on-course scenarios. This is where a few practice games come in handy.
One that I’ve been enjoying lately involves putting 10- to 15-footers with two balls. If I make the putt, great! If I miss, I pull the missed ball back a putter length. Suddenly, that little tap-in becomes a nerve-wracking three-footer—at least at first. As you get better at this game, those three- and five-footers become much more comfortable and routine.
It may sound cliché, but each shot is just what it is—it’s how we react that makes the difference. I like this game because it blends the pressure of on-course putting with the consequence of leaving yourself a much longer putt than usual.
Another game I like is one I recently learned from Brad Faxon. Place three tees in a line at four different locations around the hole: one at 3 feet, one at 6 feet, and one at 8 feet. The 3- and 6-foot putts count as par, and the 8-footer is for birdie.
This game keeps you focused on scoring and helps you get into a competitive mindset. You can even think about this putting game while you’re on the course. I just started playing it, and last week I couldn’t get better than two under par.
Competition
Competition during practice is when drills and games come to life, and you start to see results. For me, nothing beats a putting contest with a friend or two. In the right setting, these contests can become talking points for the whole season.
Match play, a game of 21, or simply seeing who can make the most one-putts (with a small prize on the line) are all great ways to simulate real on-course pressure. Recently, I played in a putting contest where one competitor made back-to-back 30- and 50-foot putts. As they say, expect your opponent to make every putt—and he nearly did. That’s impressive, and it’s something you see on the course, too: you have to stay committed to your game plan, no matter what.
When it comes to practice, it’s important to blend feedback from recent rounds with the fundamentals you want to reinforce. Drills, games, and competition—from the driving range to the putting green—form the backbone of skills you’ll rely on during actual rounds.
Finding the right balance is something we’re all working on, one practice session at a time. With the beginning of June on the horizon and courses rounding into peak condition for the season, it’s time to hone the finer skills that often get rusty over the winter. More sunlight also means more time to get out on the course and work on your game. Whether it’s the practice green or the driving range, there’s always something to improve—whether you’re enjoying the fresh air or preparing for a weekend game or tournament. You can work on drills or freestyle around the green, and friendly competition is a great way to sharpen your skills. While there are endless ways to get better at golf, I’m going to focus on practicing around the green. Let’s take a look at a few things to keep in mind as we head into the summer months.
Drills
From the driving range to the practice green, it’s important to incorporate drills into your routine. Years ago, I spent a weekend working on my short game with James Sieckmann. He recommended doing drill work for 5–10 minutes, then returning to your main practice. This way, you create a balance between structured drills and real-world scenarios, so you’re not confined to “perfect” situations. For example, hitting the same three-foot putt over and over is good for repetition, but after a while, it becomes less interactive for your brain.
My approach is to use a putting trainer with a narrow gate for the ball to pass through, or simply place tees just outside the width of the ball. I’ll hit a series of four putts through the gate for three sets. Then, from a similar distance, I’ll hit four putts without the training aid and repeat that sequence three times. Next, I’ll hit a number of 15–25 foot putts in a random fashion, then circle back to repeat the short putt drills with and without the training aid.
This breaks up the rhythm of hitting short putts with the training aid. When you hit the same short putts over and over, it’s easy to get into a groove—which is great for the drill, but not reflective of actual course play. While finding a rhythm is fundamental for drills, I like to introduce variation with longer putts to keep things realistic.
Game Mode
Once you’ve established a foundation with drills, it’s time to simulate on-course scenarios. This is where a few practice games come in handy. One that I’ve been enjoying lately involves putting 10- to 15-footers with two balls. If I make the putt, great! If I miss, I pull the missed ball back a putter length.
Suddenly, that little tap-in becomes a nerve-wracking three-footer—at least at first. As you get better at this game, those three- and five-footers become much more comfortable and routine. It may sound cliché, but each shot is just what it is—it’s how we react that makes the difference. I like this game because it blends the pressure of on-course putting with the consequence of leaving yourself a much longer putt than usual.
Another game I like is one I recently learned from Brad Faxon. Place three tees in a line at four different locations around the hole: one at 3 feet, one at 6 feet, and one at 8 feet. The 3- and 6-foot putts count as par, and the 8-footer is for birdie.
This game keeps you focused on scoring and helps you get into a competitive mindset. You can even think about this putting game while you’re on the course. I just started playing it, and last week I couldn’t get better than two under par.
Competition
Competition during practice is when drills and games come to life, and you start to see results. For me, nothing beats a putting contest with a friend or two. In the right setting, these contests can become talking points for the whole season. Match play, a game of 21, or simply seeing who can make the most one-putts (with a small prize on the line) are all great ways to simulate real on-course pressure. Recently, I played in a putting contest where one competitor made back-to-back 30- and 50-foot putts. As they say, expect your opponent to make every putt—and he nearly did. That’s impressive, and it’s something you see on the course, too: you have to stay committed to your game plan, no matter what.
When it comes to practice, it’s important to blend feedback from recent rounds with the fundamentals you want to reinforce. Drills, games, and competition—from the driving range to the putting green—form the backbone of skills you’ll rely on during actual rounds. Finding the right balance is something we’re all working on, one practice session at a time.
Equipment
Seoul Sensibilities: Is Korean golf fashion starting to shape the world?
For Korean golfers, we always look forward to the last of the kkot-saem-chu-I for the true start of a new golf season. The term refers to a cold snap, but literally translates as “winter being jealous of the flowers beginning to bloom, thus lashing out one final time before surrendering to spring”.
A rather poetic mouthful packed into a short expression.
Koreans can be like that. Understated, yet oddly expressive at the same time. And nowhere is this more true on the golf course and in our golf bags. In fact, I suspect many Korean golfers look forward to new apparel and accessory drops more than they do actual equipment launches each year.

At this point, Korean golf fashion may exist on its own timeline. (courtesy of @seonbi_golfer)
There is ample evidence to support that suspicion. Korea is the world’s third-largest golf market behind the United States and Japan, yet its appetite for golf apparel exceeds that of both countries combined. Recent estimates suggest that Korea accounts for nearly 40 percent of the global golf apparel market, placing it among the world’s most influential golf fashion markets and punching well above its size.
Simply, we care deeply about how new golf clubs look and feel, but enjoy looking good while swinging them even more.
Golfers in the West may laugh and say that golf is played on a course, not a fashion runway. Perhaps. But what’s the harm in trying to look and feel good, if the added self-confidence can help actual performance? It certainly seems to have worked for Jason Day, who may have unlocked a new stats category: dormant strokes gained. Coincidence?

During the COVID-era, estimates placed the market near $9 billion, an astonishing figure for a single country.
As a proud member of Gen X, I’ve witnessed the highs and lows of golf fashion firsthand. The pleated trousers and wing-tipped shoes of Jack Nicklaus, the stylish plus-fours and knickers of Payne Stewart, the baggy black trousers and fitted mock-necks of Tiger Woods, and the thigh-hugging athletic tailoring of Rory McIlroy. Golf fashion, like the golf swing itself, has rarely stood still.
But nowhere have those trends shifted, evolved, and been scrutinized quite as relentlessly as in Korea. Here, golf fashion moves faster than fairway gossip, and consumers dissect brands with a level of discernment that can be both impressive and mildly terrifying. New brands are studied, judged, embraced, or dismissed with startling efficiency.
The result is a consumer base with one of the sharpest eyes for quality and authenticity anywhere in the world. It is difficult to quantify, but easy to recognize. Clean lines without trying too hard. Luxury mixed with utility. Trend awareness balanced by restraint and purpose.
It’s golf fashion shaped by one of the world’s most style-literate cities, something I like to call Seoul Sensibilities, referring to the taste level forged by a uniquely competitive environment.
And increasingly, global brands have noticed.

Many golf brands in Korea have their own flagship shops dedicated to apparel only
Titleist understood this years ago, when its apparel business in Korea took on a life of its own under new ownership and local direction. What had once been a straightforward extension of an iconic equipment giant became something sharper and more premium. By going all in on the serious Tour-player look (I couldn’t even fit into their XL sizes), Titleist struck the right chord with Korean consumers and helped its fledgling apparel business break into the mainstream. Titleist became a household name even for non-golfers who wore its caps, shirts, and windbreakers in daily life. In many ways, it proved that even heritage golf brands could carry real fashion credibility when viewed through a Korean lens.
Several years later, PXG took a page out of Titleist’s playbook and followed suit. Korean consumers helped transform the brand from one known largely for irons and loud commercials into something broader and more stylish. PXG apparel’s growth in Korea was explosive, where it found an early audience and turned the category into something more than mere logo merchandise. It is still hard to walk anywhere in Seoul without seeing its palindrome logo.
Malbon’s meteoric rise in the United States was genuine, but its ascent into a global golf lifestyle brand owes much to Korea, where it was elevated by a market already fluent in modern golf style. Korea did not simply embrace Malbon. It pressure-tested the concept, refined its appeal, and helped push it into the global spotlight.
As such, new brands may arrive from abroad, but more often than not, their sharpest evolution happens here. If a brand can earn credibility in Seoul, it’s deemed to have passed one of the toughest style audits in the game.
That is why the next meaningful chapter may not come from outside, but from a Korean brand moving in the opposite direction, carrying those Seoul Sensibilities outward as K-pop once did.

Play young Stay dope.
From Seoul, With Intent
Khalhon is a label that feels less like a trend-chasing newcomer and more like the product of a market that has already seen everything. Golfers here have long been surrounded by luxury logos, technical fabrics, and tour uniforms disguised as lifestyle wear and vice-versa. In other words, novelty alone rarely lasts here, and the Koreans seems to understand that instinctively.
Its style language leans into clean silhouettes, relaxed but tailored proportions, muted palettes, and premium materials that speak quietly but confidently. There is a modern city aesthetic running through it all, with strong layering pieces, thoughtful textures, and subtle branding that suggests sophistication rather than demanding attention.

“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
Most importantly, the garments seem designed to blur the line between golfwear and everyday style. Shirts, trousers, knitwear, and outer layers move comfortably between a game of screen golf, a lunch reservation, an airport gate, or an afternoon coffee in Gangnam with friends.
It raises the question of whether this is golfwear that happens to look good off the course, or everyday clothing that performs beautifully on the fairways.
Personally, I have long appreciated Nike Golf for its clean, athletic modernization of golf attire. It also has the useful side effect of making me look like a more serious golfer than I probably am. But off the course, there are times when being instantly identified as the golf guy in a crowd of non-golfers can feel a touch self-conscious.

“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
That is part of what drew me to Khalhon, which seemed to blend golf and everyday wear naturally. While some of the outfits may be slightly beyond my personal confidence level, the brand also offers tasteful options for older guys like me who still want to express a little personality without regretting the decision later.
These are not simply flashy outfits worn on the course and then banished to the closet until the next tee time. They work surprisingly well off the course too, and I suspect many of the pieces will still look right a couple of years from now, which would certainly be kinder to my wallet than most golf fashion trends tend to be.
And perhaps that broader lifestyle positioning also helps explain why someone like Sean Wotherspoon would find Khalhon creatively interesting in the first place.

“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
“Korea is not only one of the most fashion-forward golf markets in the world, but one of the most fashion-forward markets globally. Korea is ahead, and I love to watch and try to catch up.” – Sean Wotherspoon, Creative Director at Khalhon
Seoul and Beyond
If Khalhon’s rise says something about where Korean golf fashion is today, its relationship with Sean Wotherspoon says even more about where it is heading.
For readers less familiar with Sean Wotherspoon, his arrival at Khalhon is not some routine celebrity endorsement or influencer collaboration. In design and streetwear circles, Wotherspoon is regarded as one of the more influential creative voices of his generation, particularly when it comes to blending nostalgia, storytelling, and contemporary culture into products that people can connect with.
He first gained widespread attention through his now-famous Nike sneaker collaborations, where his vintage-inspired designs and instinct for color helped turn him into one of the defining artists of the late-2010s sneaker era. His work gradually expanded beyond footwear into apparel, automotive collaborations, collectibles, and broader lifestyle design.
Modern golf style now extends well beyond the fairways, where performance and functionality are largely expected by default. And while plenty of brands already make technically competent golfwear, Khalhon seems more focused on designing clothes people would genuinely want to wear even after the round ends.
And when guys at Wotherspoon’s level show genuine interest in working with a Korean golf brand as its new Creative Director, fashion circles tend to sit up and pay attention. There’s already a huge buzz among the fashion-conscious here about upcoming collabs with iconic sports stars and brands.

“My creative direction for Khalhon is disruptive, colorful, nostalgic, and modern. My goal is to blend these avenues seamlessly within each collection.” – Sean Wotherspoon
In chatting with Sean, what stood out most to me was how genuinely energized he sounded about the project itself. Despite having already worked across and countless other creative spaces, he described golf as a completely fresh category for him, saying that Khalhon “will be an amazing vehicle for my design work.”
At the same time, his enthusiasm seemed tied just as much to Korea itself. He spoke openly about admiring Korea’s fashion culture while repeatedly insisting he is still a terrible golfer.
There was something oddly refreshing about that humility. Rather than sounding like a celebrity parachuting into golf simply because the category suddenly became fashionable, Sean sounded genuinely curious about what Korea might do with the category next.
And perhaps that is what makes Khalhon feel interesting right now. The brand feels less like a trend-chaser and more like the natural result of a market now confident enough to export its own point of view.
For years, global brands came to Korea to sharpen their image against one of the most discerning audiences anywhere. Now, a Korean label appears ready to send those Seoul Sensibilities outward instead.
Which brings us back to kkot-saem-chu-i.
That final cold snap before spring always arrives with a reminder that seasons are changing, whether we notice it immediately or not. Golf fashion feels a little like that right now as well, as the old boundaries between sport, streetwear, luxury, and everyday style continue to soften.
And somewhere in Seoul, a Korean golf label already seems prepared for whatever season comes next. I just hope they have everything in my size.

Gianni Padrino
May 21, 2025 at 1:40 am
Why did you not mention Brysons 58? When talking about odds it is kind of misleading to only include PGA Tour events. Most people do not play in PGA Tour but on courses all around the world from absolute beginners to the elite. The phrasing makes it seem there has been a 58 only once ever.