Opinion & Analysis
The 22 golfers who can actually win The Masters
Editor’s Note: Rich Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and their instructors.
Each year, I create a filter to help predict the golfers who are most likely to win the Masters. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 or 24 players that meet the criterion. In last year’s event, I predicted Bubba Watson would win the event — which he did at 25/1 odds.
Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, which this year includes 22 players, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, and that creates a smaller deviation in scores.
How No. 17 looks from the tee without the Eisenhower tree (Photo Credit: Andrew Redington/Getty Images).
In 2013 for instance, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 13, 17 and 18. But the removal of the Eisenhower Tree on No. 17 created a smaller deviation in scores, so No. 17 was no longer a critical hole for participants. The par-5 13th hole has also seen a trend in more similar scores, so it has been replaced by the par-5 15th hole as a critical hole. The critical holes to watch out for at the 2015 Masters are Nos. 7, 12, 15 and 18.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive and the amateurs. Those 18 players include:
- Antonio Murdaca (1000/1)
- Ben Crenshaw (2500/1)
- Bernhard Langer (300/1)
- Bradley Neil (1000/1)
- Byron Meth (2000/1)
- Corey Conners (1000/1)
- Fred Couples (150/1)
- Gunn Yang (1000/1)
- Ian Woosnam (2500/1)
- Jose Maria Olazabal (1000/1)
- Larry Mize (2500/1)
- Mark O’Meara (2500/1)
- Matias Dominguez (1000/1)
- Mike Weir (1000/1)
- Sandy Lyle (2500/1)
- Scott Harvey (750/1)
- Tom Watson (1000/1)
- Trevor Immelman (500/1)
I also eliminated any first-time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Those 13 players include:
- Anirban Lahiri (300/1)
- Bernd Wiesberger (250/1)
- Brendon Todd (250/1)
- Brian Harman (500/1)
- Brooks Koepka (80/1)
- Cameron Tringale (300/1)
- Danny Willett (150/1)
- Erik Compton (500/1)
- James Hahn (200/1)
- Morgan Hoffmann (250/1)
- Robert Streb (300/1)
- Seung-Yul Noh (300/1)
- Shane Lowry (150/1)
Out of the group of first-time invitees, I would pay close attention to Shane Lowry, as he has a game that is a very good fit for Augusta because of the strong Red Zone Play (shots from 175-225 yards) that he has shown off this season. And of course, if Brooks Koepka is healthy, I expect him to have a good showing, as Augusta fits his game as well.
Unfortunately, I have to eliminate five international players because I do not have enough statistical information on their playing performance in the past four months. Last year, I eliminated five international players that I had insufficient data on as well. Only one of them made a minor run at winning — Thomas Bjorn, who finished T8.
The four players include:
- Thomas Bjorn (300/1)
- Darren Clarke (1000/1)
- Stephen Gallacher (300/1)
- Braden Grace (200/1)
- Mikko Ilonen (500/1)
I will also eliminate these four American players, who have not played a sufficient amount of tournaments this season for me to statistically measure their key performance metrics:
- Kevin Stadler (500/1)
- Steve Stricker (200/1)
- Tiger Woods (20/1)
- Ben Crane (500/1)
Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:
- Jim Furyk (70/1)
- Zach Johnson (60/1)
Last year I had five players in the “too short to win at Augusta” list, and the 3 of the 5 made the cut with a best finish going to Jim Furyk, who tied for 14th.
Even more damning is the players who hit the ball too low. This is based on the Apex Height measurement, determined with Trackman on the PGA Tour. Last year, I had 10 players in the “too low of a trajectory to win at Augusta,” and 9 of the 10 players missed the cut. The only player who did make the cut was “The Mechanic,” Miguel Jimenez, who finished in 4th place. But if you don’t hit it high at Augusta, your odds of winning are not very good. That’s why I’ve eliminated these six players:
- Camilo Villegas (250/1)
- Graeme McDowell (150/1)
- Jason Dufner (125/1)
- Kevin Na (100/1)
- Patrick Reed (25/1)
- Thongchai Jaidee (500/1)
The player who stands out in this group is Patrick Reed. He’s currently 183rd in Apex Height. Typically, he has been better than the average in Apex Height, but for whatever reason he is hitting the ball quite low this season. I think, like Jimenez, Reed has the ability to alter his ball flight. But given how critical Apex Height is to success at Augusta, the numbers suggest that his odds are not that great this season.
Furthermore, since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters who had never previously made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Reed has never made the cut at the Masters and neither have the three players below. Let’s rule them out as well. They are:
- Victor Dubuisson (100/1)
- Ben Martin (300/1)
- Sang-Moon Bae (250/1)
I will say that if anybody could break that mold it would be Reed, whose fiery behavior and competitiveness reminds me of John McEnroe. But for now, I’ll stick with the numbers and the odds.
I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week, because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Furthermore, the Golf Club of Houston plays similarly to Augusta. Last year there were nine players who were not previously filtered out that missed the cut at Houston. Of those nine players, only five of them made the cut and the best finish was a T20 by Ian Poulter.
If a player did not play well at Houston, the odds are that they will not play well at a similar style of course like Augusta National. Those five players include:
- Angel Cabrera (80/1)
- Joost Luiten (205/1)
- Lee Westwood (45/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Martin Kaymer (65/1)
Another key metric at Augusta is long approach shots, which I call “Red Zone” play. The Red Zone are approach shots from 175-225 yards. Last year, there were nine players on my list of weak Red Zone performers. The best finish came from John Huh, who finished T11. Let’s rule out these 15 players because of their poor Red Zone play, which again, is critical at Augusta:
- Bill Haas (80/1)
- Charl Schwartzel (80/1)
- Charley Hoffman (250/1)
- Geoff Ogilvy (300/1)
- Hunter Mahan (100/1)
- Ian Poulter (80/1)
- Jamie Donaldson (125/1)
- John Senden (250/1)
- Jonas Blixt (150/1)
- Luke Donald (100/1)
- Marc Leishman (200/1)
- Matt Every (250/1)
- Phil Mickelson (20/1)
- Russell Henley (125/1)
- Sergio Garcia (40/1)
There are some big surprises involved with that list of players. This includes former winners Charl Schwartzel and Phil Mickelson, who currently rank 194th and 134th (out of 206 players) respectively from the Red Zone. Typically good approach shot player Luke Donald ranks 198th, and Sergio Garcia currently ranks 205th out of 206 from the Red Zone. While those rankings can change dramatically when the season is finished, it is clear that these players are currently having major issues on those long approach shots.
Lastly, I have started a new metric this season, as I have noticed that there is some correlation between performance on straight-away par-4’s and the Masters performance. Essentially, I have measured a scoring average for players on the straight-away par-4’s and adjusted that scoring average based on the hole’s difficulty. The five players left on the list who have struggled on straight-away par-4’s this season are:
- Ernie Els (150/1)
- Padraig Harrington (150/1)
- Justin Rose (40/1)
- Webb Simpson (150/1)
- Gary Woodland (125/1)
Finally, we are down to the 22 players that the numbers show can win at Augusta. They include:
- Adam Scott (20/1)
- Bill Horschel (70/1)
- Brandt Snedeker (40/1)
- Bubba Watson (10/1)
- Chris Kirk (150/1)
- Dustin Johnson (12/1)
- Henrik Stenson (20/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
- Jason Day (12/1)
- J.B. Holmes (35/1)
- Jimmy Walker (18/1)
- Jordan Spieth (8/1)
- Keegan Bradley (60/1)
- Kevin Streelman (150/1)
- Matt Kuchar (30/1)
- Miguel Angel Jimenez (150/1)
- Paul Casey (70/1)
- Rickie Fowler (30/1)
- Rory McIlroy (8/1)
- Ryan Moore (60/1)
- Ryan Palmer (80/1)
- Vijay Singh (125/1)
Of those 22 players, here are my top-10 picks to win the Masters:
- Rory McIlroy (8/1)
- Jordan Spieth (8/1)
- Bubba Watson (10/1)
- Jason Day (12/1)
- Dustin Johnson (12/1)
- Adam Scott (20/1)
- Jimmy Walker (18/1)
- J.B. Holmes (35/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
- Paul Casey (70/1)
*Odds from VegasInsider.com. For a list of updated Masters Odds, click here.
Club Junkie
Tour Edge Exotics mini driver review + TaylorMade Spider ZT Max first look – Club Junkie
On this episode of Club Junkie, I put the new Tour Edge Exotics Mini Driver to the test and break down the performance, forgiveness, distance, and where it fits compared to a traditional driver or strong fairway wood. If you have been curious about adding a mini driver to the bag, this one is worth a look.
I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: We’re talking about practice! My best tips for taking your game to the course
With the beginning of June on the horizon and courses rounding into peak condition for the season, it’s time to hone the finer skills that often get rusty over the winter. More sunlight also means more time to get out on the course and work on your game.
Whether it’s the practice green or the driving range, there’s always something to improve—whether you’re enjoying the fresh air or preparing for a weekend game or tournament. You can work on drills or freestyle around the green, and friendly competition is a great way to sharpen your skills.
While there are endless ways to get better at golf, I’m going to focus on practicing around the green. Let’s take a look at a few things to keep in mind as we head into the summer months.
Drills
From the driving range to the practice green, it’s important to incorporate drills into your routine. Years ago, I spent a weekend working on my short game with James Sieckmann. He recommended doing drill work for 5–10 minutes, then returning to your main practice.
This way, you create a balance between structured drills and real-world scenarios, so you’re not confined to “perfect” situations. For example, hitting the same three-foot putt over and over is good for repetition, but after a while, it becomes less interactive for your brain.
My approach is to use a putting trainer with a narrow gate for the ball to pass through, or simply place tees just outside the width of the ball. I’ll hit a series of four putts through the gate for three sets. Then, from a similar distance, I’ll hit four putts without the training aid and repeat that sequence three times.
Next, I’ll hit a number of 15–25 foot putts in a random fashion, then circle back to repeat the short putt drills with and without the training aid.
This breaks up the rhythm of hitting short putts with the training aid. When you hit the same short putts over and over, it’s easy to get into a groove—which is great for the drill, but not reflective of actual course play. While finding a rhythm is fundamental for drills, I like to introduce variation with longer putts to keep things realistic.
Game Mode
Once you’ve established a foundation with drills, it’s time to simulate on-course scenarios. This is where a few practice games come in handy.
One that I’ve been enjoying lately involves putting 10- to 15-footers with two balls. If I make the putt, great! If I miss, I pull the missed ball back a putter length. Suddenly, that little tap-in becomes a nerve-wracking three-footer—at least at first. As you get better at this game, those three- and five-footers become much more comfortable and routine.
It may sound cliché, but each shot is just what it is—it’s how we react that makes the difference. I like this game because it blends the pressure of on-course putting with the consequence of leaving yourself a much longer putt than usual.
Another game I like is one I recently learned from Brad Faxon. Place three tees in a line at four different locations around the hole: one at 3 feet, one at 6 feet, and one at 8 feet. The 3- and 6-foot putts count as par, and the 8-footer is for birdie.
This game keeps you focused on scoring and helps you get into a competitive mindset. You can even think about this putting game while you’re on the course. I just started playing it, and last week I couldn’t get better than two under par.
Competition
Competition during practice is when drills and games come to life, and you start to see results. For me, nothing beats a putting contest with a friend or two. In the right setting, these contests can become talking points for the whole season.
Match play, a game of 21, or simply seeing who can make the most one-putts (with a small prize on the line) are all great ways to simulate real on-course pressure. Recently, I played in a putting contest where one competitor made back-to-back 30- and 50-foot putts. As they say, expect your opponent to make every putt—and he nearly did. That’s impressive, and it’s something you see on the course, too: you have to stay committed to your game plan, no matter what.
When it comes to practice, it’s important to blend feedback from recent rounds with the fundamentals you want to reinforce. Drills, games, and competition—from the driving range to the putting green—form the backbone of skills you’ll rely on during actual rounds.
Finding the right balance is something we’re all working on, one practice session at a time. With the beginning of June on the horizon and courses rounding into peak condition for the season, it’s time to hone the finer skills that often get rusty over the winter. More sunlight also means more time to get out on the course and work on your game. Whether it’s the practice green or the driving range, there’s always something to improve—whether you’re enjoying the fresh air or preparing for a weekend game or tournament. You can work on drills or freestyle around the green, and friendly competition is a great way to sharpen your skills. While there are endless ways to get better at golf, I’m going to focus on practicing around the green. Let’s take a look at a few things to keep in mind as we head into the summer months.
Drills
From the driving range to the practice green, it’s important to incorporate drills into your routine. Years ago, I spent a weekend working on my short game with James Sieckmann. He recommended doing drill work for 5–10 minutes, then returning to your main practice. This way, you create a balance between structured drills and real-world scenarios, so you’re not confined to “perfect” situations. For example, hitting the same three-foot putt over and over is good for repetition, but after a while, it becomes less interactive for your brain.
My approach is to use a putting trainer with a narrow gate for the ball to pass through, or simply place tees just outside the width of the ball. I’ll hit a series of four putts through the gate for three sets. Then, from a similar distance, I’ll hit four putts without the training aid and repeat that sequence three times. Next, I’ll hit a number of 15–25 foot putts in a random fashion, then circle back to repeat the short putt drills with and without the training aid.
This breaks up the rhythm of hitting short putts with the training aid. When you hit the same short putts over and over, it’s easy to get into a groove—which is great for the drill, but not reflective of actual course play. While finding a rhythm is fundamental for drills, I like to introduce variation with longer putts to keep things realistic.
Game Mode
Once you’ve established a foundation with drills, it’s time to simulate on-course scenarios. This is where a few practice games come in handy. One that I’ve been enjoying lately involves putting 10- to 15-footers with two balls. If I make the putt, great! If I miss, I pull the missed ball back a putter length.
Suddenly, that little tap-in becomes a nerve-wracking three-footer—at least at first. As you get better at this game, those three- and five-footers become much more comfortable and routine. It may sound cliché, but each shot is just what it is—it’s how we react that makes the difference. I like this game because it blends the pressure of on-course putting with the consequence of leaving yourself a much longer putt than usual.
Another game I like is one I recently learned from Brad Faxon. Place three tees in a line at four different locations around the hole: one at 3 feet, one at 6 feet, and one at 8 feet. The 3- and 6-foot putts count as par, and the 8-footer is for birdie.
This game keeps you focused on scoring and helps you get into a competitive mindset. You can even think about this putting game while you’re on the course. I just started playing it, and last week I couldn’t get better than two under par.
Competition
Competition during practice is when drills and games come to life, and you start to see results. For me, nothing beats a putting contest with a friend or two. In the right setting, these contests can become talking points for the whole season. Match play, a game of 21, or simply seeing who can make the most one-putts (with a small prize on the line) are all great ways to simulate real on-course pressure. Recently, I played in a putting contest where one competitor made back-to-back 30- and 50-foot putts. As they say, expect your opponent to make every putt—and he nearly did. That’s impressive, and it’s something you see on the course, too: you have to stay committed to your game plan, no matter what.
When it comes to practice, it’s important to blend feedback from recent rounds with the fundamentals you want to reinforce. Drills, games, and competition—from the driving range to the putting green—form the backbone of skills you’ll rely on during actual rounds. Finding the right balance is something we’re all working on, one practice session at a time.
For Korean golfers, we always look forward to the last of the kkot-saem-chu-I for the true start of a new golf season. The term refers to a cold snap, but literally translates as “winter being jealous of the flowers beginning to bloom, thus lashing out one final time before surrendering to spring”.
A rather poetic mouthful packed into a short expression.
Koreans can be like that. Understated, yet oddly expressive at the same time. And nowhere is this more true on the golf course and in our golf bags. In fact, I suspect many Korean golfers look forward to new apparel and accessory drops more than they do actual equipment launches each year.
At this point, Korean golf fashion may exist on its own timeline. (courtesy of @seonbi_golfer)
There is ample evidence to support that suspicion. Korea is the world’s third-largest golf market behind the United States and Japan, yet its appetite for golf apparel exceeds that of both countries combined. Recent estimates suggest that Korea accounts for nearly 40 percent of the global golf apparel market, placing it among the world’s most influential golf fashion markets and punching well above its size.
Simply, we care deeply about how new golf clubs look and feel, but enjoy looking good while swinging them even more.
Golfers in the West may laugh and say that golf is played on a course, not a fashion runway. Perhaps. But what’s the harm in trying to look and feel good, if the added self-confidence can help actual performance? It certainly seems to have worked for Jason Day, who may have unlocked a new stats category: dormant strokes gained. Coincidence?
During the COVID-era, estimates placed the market near $9 billion, an astonishing figure for a single country.
As a proud member of Gen X, I’ve witnessed the highs and lows of golf fashion firsthand. The pleated trousers and wing-tipped shoes of Jack Nicklaus, the stylish plus-fours and knickers of Payne Stewart, the baggy black trousers and fitted mock-necks of Tiger Woods, and the thigh-hugging athletic tailoring of Rory McIlroy. Golf fashion, like the golf swing itself, has rarely stood still.
But nowhere have those trends shifted, evolved, and been scrutinized quite as relentlessly as in Korea. Here, golf fashion moves faster than fairway gossip, and consumers dissect brands with a level of discernment that can be both impressive and mildly terrifying. New brands are studied, judged, embraced, or dismissed with startling efficiency.
The result is a consumer base with one of the sharpest eyes for quality and authenticity anywhere in the world. It is difficult to quantify, but easy to recognize. Clean lines without trying too hard. Luxury mixed with utility. Trend awareness balanced by restraint and purpose.
It’s golf fashion shaped by one of the world’s most style-literate cities, something I like to call Seoul Sensibilities, referring to the taste level forged by a uniquely competitive environment.
And increasingly, global brands have noticed.
Many golf brands in Korea have their own flagship shops dedicated to apparel only
Titleist understood this years ago, when its apparel business in Korea took on a life of its own under new ownership and local direction. What had once been a straightforward extension of an iconic equipment giant became something sharper and more premium. By going all in on the serious Tour-player look (I couldn’t even fit into their XL sizes), Titleist struck the right chord with Korean consumers and helped its fledgling apparel business break into the mainstream. Titleist became a household name even for non-golfers who wore its caps, shirts, and windbreakers in daily life. In many ways, it proved that even heritage golf brands could carry real fashion credibility when viewed through a Korean lens.
Several years later, PXG took a page out of Titleist’s playbook and followed suit. Korean consumers helped transform the brand from one known largely for irons and loud commercials into something broader and more stylish. PXG apparel’s growth in Korea was explosive, where it found an early audience and turned the category into something more than mere logo merchandise. It is still hard to walk anywhere in Seoul without seeing its palindrome logo.
Malbon’s meteoric rise in the United States was genuine, but its ascent into a global golf lifestyle brand owes much to Korea, where it was elevated by a market already fluent in modern golf style. Korea did not simply embrace Malbon. It pressure-tested the concept, refined its appeal, and helped push it into the global spotlight.
As such, new brands may arrive from abroad, but more often than not, their sharpest evolution happens here. If a brand can earn credibility in Seoul, it’s deemed to have passed one of the toughest style audits in the game.
That is why the next meaningful chapter may not come from outside, but from a Korean brand moving in the opposite direction, carrying those Seoul Sensibilities outward as K-pop once did.
Play young Stay dope.
From Seoul, With Intent
Khalhon is a label that feels less like a trend-chasing newcomer and more like the product of a market that has already seen everything. Golfers here have long been surrounded by luxury logos, technical fabrics, and tour uniforms disguised as lifestyle wear and vice-versa. In other words, novelty alone rarely lasts here, and the Koreans seems to understand that instinctively.
Its style language leans into clean silhouettes, relaxed but tailored proportions, muted palettes, and premium materials that speak quietly but confidently. There is a modern city aesthetic running through it all, with strong layering pieces, thoughtful textures, and subtle branding that suggests sophistication rather than demanding attention.
“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
Most importantly, the garments seem designed to blur the line between golfwear and everyday style. Shirts, trousers, knitwear, and outer layers move comfortably between a game of screen golf, a lunch reservation, an airport gate, or an afternoon coffee in Gangnam with friends.
It raises the question of whether this is golfwear that happens to look good off the course, or everyday clothing that performs beautifully on the fairways.
Personally, I have long appreciated Nike Golf for its clean, athletic modernization of golf attire. It also has the useful side effect of making me look like a more serious golfer than I probably am. But off the course, there are times when being instantly identified as the golf guy in a crowd of non-golfers can feel a touch self-conscious.
“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
That is part of what drew me to Khalhon, which seemed to blend golf and everyday wear naturally. While some of the outfits may be slightly beyond my personal confidence level, the brand also offers tasteful options for older guys like me who still want to express a little personality without regretting the decision later.
These are not simply flashy outfits worn on the course and then banished to the closet until the next tee time. They work surprisingly well off the course too, and I suspect many of the pieces will still look right a couple of years from now, which would certainly be kinder to my wallet than most golf fashion trends tend to be.
And perhaps that broader lifestyle positioning also helps explain why someone like Sean Wotherspoon would find Khalhon creatively interesting in the first place.
“Built for the course. Designed beyond it.”
“Korea is not only one of the most fashion-forward golf markets in the world, but one of the most fashion-forward markets globally. Korea is ahead, and I love to watch and try to catch up.” – Sean Wotherspoon, Creative Director at Khalhon
Seoul and Beyond
If Khalhon’s rise says something about where Korean golf fashion is today, its relationship with Sean Wotherspoon says even more about where it is heading.
For readers less familiar with Sean Wotherspoon, his arrival at Khalhon is not some routine celebrity endorsement or influencer collaboration. In design and streetwear circles, Wotherspoon is regarded as one of the more influential creative voices of his generation, particularly when it comes to blending nostalgia, storytelling, and contemporary culture into products that people can connect with.
He first gained widespread attention through his now-famous Nike sneaker collaborations, where his vintage-inspired designs and instinct for color helped turn him into one of the defining artists of the late-2010s sneaker era. His work gradually expanded beyond footwear into apparel, automotive collaborations, collectibles, and broader lifestyle design.
Modern golf style now extends well beyond the fairways, where performance and functionality are largely expected by default. And while plenty of brands already make technically competent golfwear, Khalhon seems more focused on designing clothes people would genuinely want to wear even after the round ends.
And when guys at Wotherspoon’s level show genuine interest in working with a Korean golf brand as its new Creative Director, fashion circles tend to sit up and pay attention. There’s already a huge buzz among the fashion-conscious here about upcoming collabs with iconic sports stars and brands.
“My creative direction for Khalhon is disruptive, colorful, nostalgic, and modern. My goal is to blend these avenues seamlessly within each collection.” – Sean Wotherspoon
In chatting with Sean, what stood out most to me was how genuinely energized he sounded about the project itself. Despite having already worked across and countless other creative spaces, he described golf as a completely fresh category for him, saying that Khalhon “will be an amazing vehicle for my design work.”
At the same time, his enthusiasm seemed tied just as much to Korea itself. He spoke openly about admiring Korea’s fashion culture while repeatedly insisting he is still a terrible golfer.
There was something oddly refreshing about that humility. Rather than sounding like a celebrity parachuting into golf simply because the category suddenly became fashionable, Sean sounded genuinely curious about what Korea might do with the category next.
And perhaps that is what makes Khalhon feel interesting right now. The brand feels less like a trend-chaser and more like the natural result of a market now confident enough to export its own point of view.
For years, global brands came to Korea to sharpen their image against one of the most discerning audiences anywhere. Now, a Korean label appears ready to send those Seoul Sensibilities outward instead.
Which brings us back to kkot-saem-chu-i.
That final cold snap before spring always arrives with a reminder that seasons are changing, whether we notice it immediately or not. Golf fashion feels a little like that right now as well, as the old boundaries between sport, streetwear, luxury, and everyday style continue to soften.
And somewhere in Seoul, a Korean golf label already seems prepared for whatever season comes next. I just hope they have everything in my size.
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Maria Torres WITB 2026 (June)
Driver: Ping G440 LST (9 degrees) Shaft: Accra TourZ Green 5-M4 3-wood: Ping G440 Max (15 degrees) Shaft: Accra TourZ Green 6-M4 5-wood: Ping G440...
Eric Cole WITB 2026 (June)
Driver: PXG Lightning Tour Max (9 degrees) Shaft: Project X Titan Yellow 70 TX 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi4D (15 degrees) Shaft:...
Si Woo Kim WITB 2026 (May)
Driver: Callaway Quantum Triple Diamond (8.5 degrees) Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Black 6 X Mini driver: Callaway Paradym Ai Smoke Mini...
Wyndham Clark’s winning WITB: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Driver: TaylorMade Qi4D (10.5 degrees) Shaft: Project X Titan Yellow 60 TX 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi4D Tour (15 degrees) Shaft: Project...
Jimmy W
Mar 29, 2016 at 3:27 pm
When do you plan on releasing the 2016 version of this? Always love your write up.
Brian
Apr 13, 2015 at 3:17 pm
Well, thank you sir. With your information I won my masters pool at work. Brilliant! Please do this again next year!
John
Apr 10, 2015 at 9:29 pm
Which two do you like over the weekend out of this group: Woods, Haas, Moore, Matsuyama, Blixt, Sergio?
Stormy
Apr 8, 2015 at 4:40 pm
Thanks much for the article Rich, very interesting and compelling. Do you have any clue how nagging Hideki Matsuyama’s wrist injury is?
Rich Hunt
Apr 9, 2015 at 9:34 am
Not sure. His ballstriking is still really great. I have him ranked 2nd in Driving Effectiveness right now and 7th in Red Zone play. Last year his biggest woes was his Short Game play around the green, but this year he’s 34th. I don’t know when the wrist injury occurred, but it doesn’t appear to be bothering him too much. Phenomenal talent.
Jordan
Apr 8, 2015 at 4:26 pm
Rich that was one of the best articles I’ve ever read and great insight behind the numbers, I understand your top 10, Casey being your dark horse, and Rory your pick to win. But who’s the other 3 that make your top 5?
Rich Hunt
Apr 9, 2015 at 9:36 am
I still like Bubba, Jason Day and Spieth.
Andrew
Apr 8, 2015 at 12:39 pm
Richie- What do you think of Lee Westwood this week. He’s been a top-10 machine at ANGC. I know he missed the cut last week but -2 in tough conditions (close to the cut) but that doesn’t seem to indicate he really struggled. If you hadn’t cut him for missing the cut, how would he have performed in the other metrics you use to predict this week?
Rich Hunt
Apr 8, 2015 at 2:50 pm
I really liked Westwood, although his data is limited this year. He performed well from the Red Zone and straight-away par-4’s. But, he missed the cut at Houston which is too problematic to overcome. Wouldn’t be surprised if he records a top-10 finish, but winning isn’t very likely.
gpo613
Apr 8, 2015 at 12:02 pm
I love the analysis. I am a huge math guy myself. One interesting stat I found this week is that only 2 players have finished in the Top 20 in the last 5 Masters. Adam Scott and Fred Couples.
Doesn’t mean much but interesting.
Even though it goes against the stats the guy I don’t believe in this week is Holmes.
Rich Hunt
Apr 9, 2015 at 9:39 am
Holmes has played this year in interesting style. His Red Zone performance is poor 146th, but he’s rarely in the Red Zone except on the par-3’s. He just hits it too far to be in the Red Zone on the par-4’s. I was going to filter him out, but his performance at Houston changed that. Still, I think he could have issues on the par-3’s and #13 and #15 if his drive ends up with 175-225 yards to the hole. But, I’ve talked to some of the Vegas odds makers and in golf, the hot hand is very important.
Kevin
Apr 8, 2015 at 11:05 am
If you have watched much golf on TV this season, the players in the final list of favorites are the ones who would have passed the eye ball test for having a great chance this week as well. Barring some anomaly, whoever putts the best of the favorites will probably win.
Martin
Apr 8, 2015 at 7:39 am
I think the analysis is pretty good, I picked Day in my pool.
Ian
Apr 8, 2015 at 6:05 am
PSA: the year Zach Johnson won was windy and cold (eliminating the distance advantage of the bombers). Or you can waste your time and read all 50+ posts below saying the same thing.
T
Apr 7, 2015 at 10:39 pm
It’s cute when you guys point to Zach or Weir as a way to disprove logic. The article is based on statistics and trends, not the anomalies. Those of you trolling should write your own article with your top 20, based on the seat of your pants then narrow it to a top 10 picks based on past winners and long shots, I’m sure you will get lucky once every 5-10 years.
I’ll stick to statistics which have worked 2 years in a row and have something more than an opinion to back them up.
Thanks for the well written article Rich.
devlin
Apr 9, 2015 at 8:59 am
This is really good statistical research. However these statistics do not take into account other variables such as weather, player emotional and physical state, players preparation, tee off selection, player partner selection.
I will state I am not surprised at how the list was achieved.
With the exception of Hunter Mahan and Phil Mickelson not being part of the top 22.
I am surprised at some of the people on that list though; Jimmy Walker, and Henrik Stenson don’t appear to have the belief that they can win at Augusta, from the sound bites and interviews that i’ve heard. Miguel and Vijay do not have the finishing ability or conditioning to win. Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore and Ryan Palmer shouldn’t even be on the top 22 list, regardless of the stats., in my opinion. Hedeki is injured and he’s too new to the Masters he might need a few more years but should not be on this list this year.
But that’s the interesting thing about statistics, they can be used to prove or disprove anything.
Good Read though!
Jeff
Apr 7, 2015 at 5:08 pm
Zach Johnson definitely too short to finish well at Augusta.
Pulley
Apr 7, 2015 at 12:31 pm
Excellent article Rich! However Victor Dubuisson will finish in the top 5 and probably win it all.
Kevin
Apr 7, 2015 at 11:50 am
really fun article, well-written, and the stat approach was interesting! you mention you picked Bubba last year, so who is your top pick this year based on all information you have gathered?
jedidiahs mom
Apr 7, 2015 at 8:54 am
richie what are the odds of you looking your cutest on Thursday?
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:36 am
Vegas has removed them from the odds line.
James
Apr 7, 2015 at 7:50 am
A great read with some interesting points. In my humble opinion, I’m surprised there was no metric mentioned regarding chipping or putting, particularly as we’re talking about Augusta, but nevertheless an enjoyable read!
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:19 am
James – ANGC is a course about hitting GIR. 9 of the last 10 winners hit at least 50 GIR’s and the one that didn’t, Charl Schwartzel, hit 49 GIR in his victory. This is not typical of a lot of courses where there may be a wide range of GIR by the winners over the years. Usually the courses where hitting a lot of GIR’s is needed is usually low scoring events like Las Vegas or Palm Springs. But the Masters is not a low scoring event and since you have to hit a ton of GIR’s to win, it shows that putting has far less effect than people think. That’s how guys that are typically below average putters like Bubba, Adam Scott, Cabrera, etc play well at ANGC.
The numbers suggest that inside 20-feet at ANGC there are a lot of putts to be made. The issue is outside 20-feet as there are likely a lot of 3-putts to be made. So the better ballstrikers tend to win here and if you’re missing greens, it’s likely going to be a difficult up-and-down from any position due to it being difficult to get close to the hole.
I think the greens have a large impact on 1st time invitees given Zoeller is the only person to win there and that was nearly 35 years ago. But for the rest of the field that gets to experience the greens there probably is not a great deviation in putting performance and the greater deviation results from getting the approach shot close to the hole.
Ev
Apr 7, 2015 at 5:29 am
Love the article, I don’t like to pick winners in the Masters. I’ve gone for Jimmy Walker finishing in top 20 at evens
Simz
Apr 7, 2015 at 4:49 am
Brilliant! Thanks for this. I feel this is a well structured and articulated piece, and although most of your final picks fall into the “common” pool, the stats justify it. But a question Rich
1) Given the weather forecast (rainy, storms predicted for Thurs – Sat) – How does this affect the picks? Maybe a chance for the shorter hitters / good scramblers
2) No putting metric to help with more filtering?
Thanks again
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:35 am
a) Wind tends to help the shorter players with good wedge games in general. Zach Johnson won at ANGC in a terribly cold and windy 4-days. I have done research on players that perform better (with regards to where they rank in an event) when the wind is up and typically good wedge players with slightly downward attack angles with the driver and a little more conservative off the tee tend to do better. As far as rain goes, I have yet to do research on that. I would think that would favor the long hitter (think Daly at Crooked Stick) and the short hitter that is excellent from the Red Zone (i.e. Weir when he won). So screwy weather conditions may favor a player more like Chris Kirk or Ryan Moore.
b)
Gary Gutful
Apr 7, 2015 at 3:57 am
Bet large and bet often.
I’m going to put a shyteload on Day.
Jake Anderson
Apr 7, 2015 at 3:10 am
Very interesting – great article! Just one question out of curiosity: How did you determine that Vijay Singh was not well past his competitive prime so that you did not rule him out initially? Is this due to his stats on the PGA-Tour this season? For example approach play from the Red Zone?
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:22 am
Yes. Vijay is 6th in Red Zone play so far this year. He also played well at Riviera (t-12th) which has a moderate correlation to performance at ANGC. I believe the Red Zone shots at Riviera are similar to the type of Red Zone shots at ANGC and that’s why there is a correlation between performance there earlier in the year and performance at the Masters.
AC930
Apr 7, 2015 at 1:51 am
Great article and insight….. but I’m not going to write off Tiger like so many are doing right now. Does anyone remember the 14 majors? He may have looked like he was trying to play left handed a few months ago, but he will wake up and intimidate again.
Rich
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:20 am
I think you need to wake up dude…………
RG
Apr 6, 2015 at 10:45 pm
To all the mouth breathers-It’s called math. Yes Rich used numbers and, OMG, formulas to give what is called a “statistical analysis.” Now I know many of you don’t “believe” in scientific mumbo jumbo, so this article is not for you.
To Rich,
Don’t worry about comments you see in this forum. People on here are convinced that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west and there’s no scientific gobbly goop that can change it.
Rich
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:21 am
But it does so what’s your point?
JHM
Apr 6, 2015 at 10:28 pm
great article – hope you are right – I got 3 of your top 21 and 2 of your top 10 with pretty good odds from Ceasars
marcel
Apr 6, 2015 at 10:16 pm
if Bubba does not win then the other guy can be whoever!
michael
Apr 6, 2015 at 9:16 pm
Before reading the article i had Keegan and Kuchar penciled in as my picks. I think at 60 to 1 Bradley is good odds for a wager.
KT
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:26 pm
Rich – so who’s your pick to win it?
Richie Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:56 pm
I like Rory.
Gubment Cheez
Apr 6, 2015 at 6:53 pm
It’s a limited field with a bunch of over the hill former winners and a lot of amateurs that couldn’t shoot in the 60s at the John Deere.
Augusta thinks it’s too good for golf
It’s a cool looking course but by far it’s the worst tournament of the year
Why anyone really cares about this is beyond me.
Richie Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:55 pm
Gubment — Have you ever been to Augusta?
Gubment Cheez
Apr 7, 2015 at 1:13 pm
Yea once when I first got into golf
Joey.
Apr 6, 2015 at 6:27 pm
Richie also thinks that the greens at Augusta are easier to putt than other courses on tour. I’d say that’s enough to discredit any of his opinions/ “statistical analyses”
Richie Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:54 pm
What can be discredited is you have completely misrepresented what I’ve said in a desperate move to make yourself sound correct. The data shows that the make percentages inside 20-feet at ANGC are fairly high and that the 3-putt %’s are also high. Faster greens on Tour by and large have the highest make %’s and depending on the size of the greens…have the highest 3-putt %’s. I was told that this could not possibly be true and I showed example after example of this where the slower greens (i.e. Pebble, Riviera, Torrey Pines, etc) had low make %’s while the faster greens like Congressional, TPC Boston, and Valhalla had some of the higher make %’s. Until you provide any actual evidence suggesting otherwise, it’s hard to take your claims with more than a grain of salt.
Joey.
Apr 6, 2015 at 9:12 pm
You mad bro?
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:26 am
Not mad at all. I love to clarify people that make purposely inaccurate statements. Exposing people and their agendas comes with the territory.
Duncan Castles
Apr 7, 2015 at 2:35 pm
Hunt wins 10 & 8.
Joakim
Apr 6, 2015 at 5:57 pm
Henrik Stenson should be in top 10
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:29 am
I thought about it, but Stenson’s game is really about driving (typically). Last season he was excellent from the Red Zone (5th), this year he’s been very good. The issue I see for him is that ANGC isn’t a course where you’re going to gain a lot of strokes on the field by hitting 300 yard drives down the middle. It won’t hurt, but you have to worry about guys like Bubba, DJ, Holmes, etc. that can simply bomb it out there as far as they can and still end up with a shot at the green from a closer distance. I wouldn’t scoff at anybody picking Stenson, I just think that there are players that fit into ANGC better than he does.
Jadon
Apr 6, 2015 at 4:58 pm
Yes Mike Weir has a green jacket but his play on tour has been less than stellar for the past 3 years.
Matt
Apr 6, 2015 at 4:50 pm
Haha sorry but I laughed when I saw Paul Casey…dude’s driving accuracy is 110th.
All things considered Bubba’s in the 140’s but we’ve all seen the filthy shots he can hit from the rough!
Sam
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:28 pm
In reply to Ed,
When Zach won in ’07 the weather was less than ideal. The course was playing soft and so the longer hitters couldn’t take advantage of the par 5s. So a great wedge player like Zach had no disadvantage laying up on par 5s. Unless the course plays soft it’s unlikely for a short player to prevail
Ross
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:23 pm
This is a Par 5 championship, the golfer with the least stokes taken on the 16 par 5s will be triumphant.
Jafar
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:23 pm
Sorry but your stats are a horrible way to pick the winner. Just because you said Bubba Watson would win doesn’t mean your formula worked.
Brooks Koepka, Zach Johnson,Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blixt, are all very capable of winning.
The only pick I like of yours is JB Holmes, but the rest is just a list of the Top 10 in the world, nothing too bold there, any of those guys can win any tournament.
The questions is can you pick someone that no one expects?
If I had to pick 4 people that not many would expect, they’d be: Jamie Donaldson, Victor Dubuisson , Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale.
Rich Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:57 pm
My list in the previous year (I’ve only done it for the past 2 years) had Adam Scott who won it that year as well. Correlation does not imply causation, but we are trying to determine the *likelihood* of winning an event based on past data. There has only been one 1st time invitee to win at ANGC which shows a relationship between experience of playing Augusta and winning. The odds of winning at ANGC despite missing the cut the week before are extremely unlikely which eliminates Cabrera. I don’t believe Blixt is a good fit for ANGC given his weak ballstriking. And as far as one ‘nobody expects’, I did list Paul Casey who would be in my top-5 picks. The numbers really like Casey this year.
Jafar
Apr 8, 2015 at 10:52 am
Yah I saw your Paul Casey pick as being someone who know ones expects to win.
I will keep my eye out for his name on the leaderboard.
AllBOdoesisgolf
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:21 pm
the fact that Tiger is 20/1 is laughable
Dan
Apr 6, 2015 at 12:52 pm
I wonder what odds the bookies would give to take the field against your 21 players?
I personally like your list but you’d have to agree that the stats don’t show everything!
Rich Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 2:07 pm
I agree, statistics do not show everything. But, statisticians do not create statistics with the goal in mind of showing everything because they know that more often than not it is impossible to do so. So their goal is to use historical data, trends, correlations, variances, etc. to help provide a more accurate understanding instead of a *perfect* understanding.
For ANGC, unless the weather conditions change dramatically, hitting it high, hitting it long, hitting it well from 175-225 yards and having experience playing ANGC fall right in line with the players most likely to play well.
Matt
Apr 6, 2015 at 12:50 pm
too short to play well at Augusta?? Zach Johnson won the event?? Very confused
Ed
Apr 6, 2015 at 12:55 pm
I kind of thought the same thing when I read that as Zach J was going to be one of my picks
Jm
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:07 pm
The year z johnson won was a year when weather and conditions played a big factor and eliminated some of the advantages that players who hit it long and high typically have at Augusta National
Matt
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:21 pm
If I recall correctly, ZJ won in ’07 during a very windy weekend. Plus he can’t putt for sheeeeeit.
Rich Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:52 pm
It was not only a windy weekend, it was record low temps. At the time I was living in Atlanta and the temps were in the 40’s with the wind. This made it extremely difficult to reach #13 and #15 in two shots and thus players had to lay-up on those holes and get into a wedge contest with Zach.
Keith
Apr 7, 2015 at 12:09 pm
That was my one and only Masters. I did not pack appropriately and had to buy a long sleeve pullover so I didn’t freeze to death! Ian Poulter wore really pink pants and patent leather pink shoes on Sunday…not sure why I remember that.
Jason
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:27 pm
He did win it once but overall his average finish is 37, with 5 missed cuts in 11 starts I can see how he missed the top 21.
Guantanemo
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:28 pm
The thing you have to realize is, the year Zach Johnson won, temperatures at Augusta were at historic lows, so the longer hitters weren’t able to take advantage of their length to reach the greens in two in par 5s. That’s why Zach, who was so deadly accurate with his wedges, was able to take advantage of the longer hitters’ disadvantage and score low on those holes. You have to realize that Augusta is a course that absolutely favors longer hitters under normal conditions, so the “too short to play well” is in fact a crucial metric.
SJ
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:31 pm
Pretty sure Mike Weir is even shorter than Zach, and misses more fairways. Last time I checked I he has a green jacket in his closet as well.